Toru Kubo

English

Research Papers in Economics

 
Hi-Stat
 
 
 
 
 
Discussion Paper Series 
 
 
No.118 
 
 
Industrial Development in Republican China,Newly Revised Index: 
  1912-1948 
 
Toru Kubo 
 
 
September 2005 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hitotsubashi University Research Unit 
for Statistical Analysis in Social Sciences 
A 21st-Century COE Program 
 
Institute of Economic Research   
Hitotsubashi University 
Kunitachi, Tokyo, 186-8603 Japan 
http://hi-stat.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/ N.W. Posthumus Institute of Economic and Social History, Groningen  
and 
Hitotsubashi University 21st Century Program, Research Unit for Statistical Analysis in Social 
Sciences, the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University 
 
Technology and Long-run Economic Growth in Asia 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Industrial Development in Republican China, 
Newly Revised Index: 1912-1948 
 
 
 
Toru Kubo 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
September 9th, 2005 
Sano-Shoin, Hitotsubashi University, 
Kunitachi, Tokyo     Industrial Development in Republican China, Newly Revised Index: 1912-1948 
 
                                                        KUBO, Toru 
 
１．Introduction 
 
    For compiling long term economic statistics, we need to make adequate index series of the 
production. As we showed a preliminary report on the Chinese modern industrial output series in the 
first half of the 20th century in the workshop held in 2000, today we would like to show a newly 
revised one. 
        The most representative and most cited work related to this research was John K. Chang's book 
(Chang [1969]). Chang's compilation of 1912-1949 industrial production index based on the output 
series of 15 mining and industry products was unquestionably a significant achievement. But the 
Chang’s index included very few items that belonged to the modern industry (only limited to cotton 
yarn, cotton cloth, iron, steel and cement by the classification standard of the United Nations).  
This left much room for improvement for later research. At first, this research takes up the cotton 
textile sector, which had a 20% share in modern Chinese industry and makes new estimates for 
cotton yarn production. Secondly this research attempts to make estimates for the silk industry which 
stood second in Chinese modern industry. In an addition, we also try to improve the Chang’s index 
in several output series of the other products. 
 
２．New Estimates on Cotton Yarn Production, 1912-1936 
 
    Cotton spinning industry was the most important industry in the Chinese modern economy 
during this period. According to our understanding, we have several kinds of estimates on the 
modern Chinese cotton yarn production. And an estimate compiled by the Preparatory Committee of 
the Shanghai Cotton Spinning and Weaving Association (1951) (hereafter refereed to as Cotton 
Statistics) is the best one among them, while it also needs some revisions. 
    How do we approach to compile the time series statistics of cotton yarn output?  Needless to 
say, we should utilize all the information. Therefore, in our new estimation procedure, besides the 
basic available cotton statistics, we also use enterprise level information (such as Shenxin, Yongan, 
Fuyi, Xinyu, Huaxin and Japanese cotton textile factories in Tsingtao, Jinhua, Yuhua, Dahua, Daxin 
and others) to try to improve the statistics. Also for the northeast China, we use the reliable factory 
statistics compiled by the Japanese. 
        We need to make up for missing years, items in the statistics. From the previous studies, we can 
summarize the following 4 types of estimation methods. 
1. Average output per spindle estimation (capital productivity series) 
  12. Average output per laborer estimation (labor productivity series) 
3. Yarn- cotton ratio estimation (cotton loss ratio series) 
4. Estimation of yarn output for own consumption in factories combining spinning and weaving 
operation (cotton cloth series) 
    We have already discussed this problem in the workshop in 2000. Please refer the workshop 
report. 
 
３．Cotton Industry during Sino-Japanese War, 1937-1945 
 
    J. K. Chang used the output series of the cotton industry in the northeast China as the basic data to 
calculate the nationwide output series of Chinese cotton industry during the Sino-Japanese war 
period. But it should be correct because the cotton industry in the northeast China could not 
represent all of the Chinese cotton industry. In fact the cotton industry in Shanghai where half of the 
Chinese cotton mills located experienced a big boom from 1938 to 1941, while the output of the 
cotton industry in the northeast China declined very much because of raw cotton deficiency. Using 
enough raw cotton bought from the international market, Shanghai cotton mills could make a lot of 
cotton yarn and textile during the first half of the war times. So due to using the output data of cotton 
yarns in the northeast China, J. K. Chang underestimated the nationwide output of Chinese cotton 
industry from 1938 to 1941. 
  Then how can we get adequate data of the nationwide output series of Chinese cotton industry 
during the war period? We can find the output statistics in the northeast China and the Free China 
(the southwest China). At the same time, in this study, we use the average output per spindle 
estimation (capital productivity series) to calculate the output in the central China and the north 
China. As there were big differences among each of the capital productivity of cotton mills, we use 
several kinds of capital productivity data classified by the capital nationalities and the mill's location. 
Especially regarding the productivity of Chinese cotton mills in Shanghai, our estimate is based on 
the management materials of several famous cotton mills including Shenxin no.9, Yongan no.3 and 
Xinyu.   
  As a result, our new estimate on the nationwide output series of Chinese cotton industry from 
1938 to 1941 becomes much higher than J. K. Chang's estimate (See table1). This trend is similar to 
the other estimate in the journal published just after the war.   
 
４．Silk Industry and Silk Weaving Industry, 1912-1948 
 
        Partly mechanized silk industry in China started at Shanghai in 1861, while it once abandoned a 
few years later. After the 1870s in Guangdong province and the 1880s in Lower Zhangjiang basin, 
many Chinese merchants established lots of factories producing filature silk to export the world 
  2market. The number of factories in 1930 was as follows. 
 
             S h a n g h a i    J i a n g - z h e    G u a n g d o n g    S i c h u a n  
  N u m b e r       1 0 7          8 1         1 2 1          2 0  
 
        Silk weaving industry using electric power also began at Shanghai in 1915 and after the 1920s 
the output increased very fast by using rayon (artificial silk) with natural silk. As silk industry and 
silk weaving industry occupied the second important place in Chinese modern industry, we should 
pay an attention to their output to compile an adequate industrial output index series. But we do not 
have the statistics of output of silk or silk weaving. So we try to make an estimate. 
    It is not easy to make an estimate on the output series of silk filature by using the capital 
productivity data. Because we do not have annual number and productivity data of silk reeling 
machine, while we have a rough estimate of number of silk reeling factories in the specific years. So 
in this study, we mainly use the export trade statistics to calculate the output of filature silk because 
most of filature silk were exported in that times. However of course some of them consumed in the 
silk weaving mills in China were not exported to abroad. The total of export and domestic 
consumption indicated the output of filature silk (See table2).   
    So at first we must make an estimate of the output series of silk weaving industry. We use the 
method to estimate by capital productivity series for compiling the output of silk weaving. On one 
hand, we make an estimate of annual number of power silk weaving machines during this period. On 
the other hand, using the data of the Meiya silk weaving mill, which was one of the biggest silk 
weaving mills in China, we can get annual productivity data per a silk weaving machine (See 
table3).   
 
５．Other Revisions 
 
    In addition to the revision regarding cotton and silk industries, we revised several estimates in 
the other output series as follows. 
1) Output in the district under the Chongqing National Government's rule during the War period 
          Using several original data, we can revise a part of the output data in the district under   
          the Chongqing National Government's rule (the southwest China ) during the War period. 
2) Output in the northeast China (Manchuria) during the War period 
     Using  "Kojo  tokei  sokuho"("Prompt report of industrial statistics"), we can revise most 
     of  the  output  series  of  industrial  production in the northeast China during the War period 
3) Output of the electric power stations in the Central China during the War period 
          We can refer the documents of "Kachu suiden"(Central China Electric Power Co.) 
     to  revise  Chang's  data. 
  34) Output of the cement industry in the central China during the War period 
          We can refer the documents of "Shanghai shuini gongsi"(Shanghai Cement Co.) 
     to  revise  Chang's  data. 
 
６．Conclusion 
 
     The result is as follows (See figure 1).   At first, the post WWI depression did not cause a large 
decline on the overall production. While Chang's index showed a drastic drop of production in 1922, 
our revised figures showed only a little slowdown in the development. The Chang index possibly 
exaggerated the adverse impact of the post WWI depression  the on the entire Chinese modern 
industry. Secondly, there was a very vigorous recovery in 1936 following the end of the 1930s Great 
Depression. Our revised figures showed there was a 10% increase in 1936 in comparison with the 
previous year - a good indication of the rapid recovery following the currency reform at the end of 
1935. The third point is about the assessment on the industrial production during the Sino-Japanese 
War. According to our revised figures, we should recognize some kind of recovery from 1938 to 
1941 during the War, although the industrial production sharply declined after 1942.   
  4…
…
…
Table1 Cotton Yarn Production in China, 1938-1945
1,000bales
South west
China
North
China
North China Central
China
Central
China
North east
China
Total Chang's
Chinese
Mills
Chinese
Mills
Japanese
Mills
Chinese
Mills
Japanese
Mills
Japanese
Mills
1938 25 48 452 358 694 196 1,773 717
1939 27 35 332 474 917 193 1,979 802
1940 30 34 327 457 768 148 1,764 764
1941 112 28 415 322 598 145 1,620 848
1942 114 22 309 59 352 180 1,036 516
1943 117 22 307 29 174 160 809 500
1944 115 20 276 12 72 95 590 400
1945 69 14 199 9 52 68 411 300
Note:Italic letters mean estimate.
Table2 Filature Silk Production in China, 1912-1949 Table3 Silk Weaving Production in China, 1912-1949
HK piculs
Export Domestic
Consumptio
Production Weaving
machines
Productivity
(per
Production
(pcs.)
1912 59,157 　　　　　－ 59,157 1912 　　　　－ 　　　　－ 　　　　　－
1913 69,541 　　　　　－ 69,541 1913 　　　　－ 　　　　－ 　　　　　－
1914 56,766 　　　　　－ 56,766 1914 　　　　－ 　　　　－ 　　　　　－
1915 63,139 61 63,200 1915 69 74.88 5,167
1916 68,286 241 68,527 1916 273 74.88 20,442
1917 73,103 432 73,535 1917 489 74.88 36,616
1918 64,187 1,160 65,347 1918 1,314 74.88 98,353
1919 90,038 1,320 91,358 1919 1,495 74.88 111,944
1920 56,043 1,559 57,602 1920 1,766 74.88 132,199
1921 87,484 1,812 89,296 1921 2,293 67.00 153,598
1922 89,248 2,841 92,089 1922 2,820 85.44 240,893
1923 77,470 2,913 80,383 1923 3,421 72.20 247,019
1924 81,047 5,696 86,743 1924 4,023 120.04 482,960
1925 103,289 10,958 114,247 1925 4,625 200.88 929,092
1926 107,279 11,143 118,422 1926 5,314 177.79 944,797
1927 101,889 14,425 116,314 1927 6,040 219.61 1,326,378
1928 123,170 14,976 138,146 1928 6,179 243.43 1,504,199
1929 123,045 13,911 136,956 1929 6,919 222.48 1,539,295
1930 100,242 14,739 114,981 1930 8,994 201.87 1,815,539
1931 86,736 16,949 103,685 1931 11,320 207.98 2,354,289
1932 45,896 11,709 57,605 1932 10,504 177.50 1,864,454
1933 59,459 15,376 74,835 1933 12,088 237.27 2,868,033
1934 40,129 12,363 52,491 1934 13,672 168.66 2,305,958
1935 57,040 11,778 68,818 1935 15,256 144.01 2,196,986
1936 47,224 13,820 61,045 1936 16,840 153.08 2,577,883
1937 53,630 9,090 62,720 1937 13,844 89.42 1,532,899
1938 32,305 7,320 39,625 1938 9,376 109.10 968,671
1939 46,144 12,037 58,181 1939 8,434 177.95 1,759,886
1940 46,667 7,167 53,834 1940 7,972 122.88 1,113,413
1941 32,585 5,863 38,448 1941 7,663 116.32 987,921
1942 7,837 2,538 10,374 1942 8,015 59.07 473,391
1943 108 2,346 2,454 1943 8,843 55.50 437,564
1944 　　　　　　　 1,912 1,912 1944 9,670 50.54 356,697
1945 　　　　　　　 1,770 1,770 1945 10,542 31.32 330,153
1946 10,369 2,484 12,853 1946 11,070 41.86 463,374
1947 6,000 4,559 10,559 1947 11,597 73.33 850,447
1948 3,000 6,067 9,067 1948 12,125 93.33 1,131,620
1949 　　　　　　　 6,005 6,005 1949 12,652 88.53 1,120,045Fig.1 Industrial Output in China, 1912-1949
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
1912 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
Year
Index(1933=100)
Chang's index
New index

Industrial Development in Republican China,Newly Revised Index: 1912-1948

http://hi-stat.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2005/pdf/D05-118.pdf

Industrial Development in Republican China,Newly Revised Index: 1912-1948

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