Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices

Abstract

A threefold analysis of commodity prices is carried out to observe their long-run behaviour, their short-run properties and the main determinants. According to the evidence, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis does not seem to be a property of most prices. The cycles of commodity prices are asymmetric but contrary to the case of economic activity, the longer phase corresponds to slumps. Interest rates seem to maintain a negative relationship with commodity prices.Commodity prices, real interest rates, Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, short-run behaviour. Classification JEL: E3; E32; F4; O13; O47; Q11.