A model is developed using bases, marketing weights, and a composite of monthly futures and cash prices to forecast a season-average U.S. farm price for corn. Forecast accuracy measures include the mean absolute percentage error and Theil's U-statistic. Futures forecasts are compared with a naïve forecast and WASDE projections. Futures price forecasts are timely and reliable.Marketing,

Beachler, Michael

Hoffman, Linwood A.

English

Research Papers in Economics

Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting Accuracy: Futures Markets versus Commercial Econometric Models.&quot;

Commodity Futures Prices as Forecasts.” Review of Agricultural Economics.

Corn and Soybean Basis Behavior and Forecasting: Fundamental and Alternative Approaches.” Unpublished manuscript.

Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Agricultural Prices. Annual summaries and monthly issues,

Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Monthly issues,

Factors Affecting the U.S. Farm Price of Upland Cotton.”

Forecasting Season-Average Corn Prices Using Current Futures Prices.” Feed Situation and Outlook Report.

Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability.&quot;

Futures Prices in Supply Analysis.&quot;

Information, Futures Prices, and Stabilizing Speculation.&quot;

Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors

Projecting the Season Average Price For U.S.

EVALUATING THE USE OF FUTURES PRICES TO FORECAST THE FARM LEVEL U.S. CORN PRICE

EVALUATING THE USE OF FUTURES PRICES TO FORECAST THE FARM LEVEL U.S. CORN PRICE

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Research Papers in Economics