An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: the case of Colombia

Abstract

In this paper we fond that the difusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia can be best haracterised as following a Logistic curve. Although in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, we find evidence that there is still room for further expansion as thesaturation level is expected to be reached in five years time. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.Technology di¤usion; Mobile telecommunications; Gompertzcurve; Logistic curve; Colombia.