PROJECTED CONSUMPTION OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS

Abstract

The U.S. consumption pattern of livestock products has changed considerably and is expected to keep changing. The first part of this paper reviews the consumption trends and the price and nonprice factors affecting those trends. In the second part, future consumption patterns are projected. The projections of the constant income elasticity model and the Tornquist functions are rejected due to recent trends which do not receive enough weight in these models. A third model which projects consumption shares is selected as a more accurate predictor. By the year 2010, national consumption of beef is estimated to decrease by 5 to 10%; pork to increase by up to 5%. Lamb and mutton will continue to be consumed less. Poultry consumption will increase dramatically while egg consumption will decrease.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries,