CREDIT SCORE MIGRATION ANALYSIS OF FARM BUSINESSES: CONDITIONING ON BUSINESS CYCLES AND MIGRATION TRENDS

Abstract

This study examines credit score migration rates of farm businesses. We test whether migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Our results suggest that agricultural credit ratings are more likely to improve during expansions and deteriorate during recessions. We also test whether agricultural credit ratings depend on the previous period migration trends. Our results show that credit score ratings exhibit trend reversal where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).business cycle, credit migration, migration trend, path dependence, rating drift, trend reversal, Agricultural Finance,