INCORPORATING EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PROJECTIONS OF MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY INTO AN OPEN ECONOMY GROWTH MODEL: AIDS IN SOUTH AFRICA

Abstract

HIV prevalence dynamics are introduced into a three sector, neoclassical growth model. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. Projections portend if left unchecked, the long run impact of HIV and AIDS could drive South African GDP to levels that are over 60% less than no-HIV levels, with AIDS death rates decreasing the long run stock of labor by over 60%.Health Economics and Policy,