Migrant Inertia, Accessibility and Local Unemployment.

Abstract

A labor-market model is constructed in which migration may exhibit distance deterrence and cumulative inertia. (Migration probabilities fall with distance and length of residence, respectively.) The combination of these two processes yields higher equilibrium unemployment rates in remote areas. Fewer out-migration opportunities in remote areas generate longer residence durations that become self-perpetuating (via cumulative inertia). Such areas accumulate net in-migrants until the local unemployment rate rises sufficiently to balance inflows and outflows. In equilibrium, local unemployment rates compensate for (endogenous) variations in residence duration. Some evidence is presented for Britain that supports the prediction of higher unemployment in remote areas. Copyright 1995 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.