Love, John M.

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Research Papers in Economics

1Approved by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for Sugar.
Agricultural Outlook Forum 2007 Presented: Friday, March 2, 2007
2007/08 U.S. SUGAR SUPPLY AND USE
1
John M. Love
USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board
Basis for projecting 2007/08 supply and demand:
• Beginning stocks are taken from 2006/07 ending stocks in the February 2007 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
• Sugar production and use are taken from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016.
• Tariff rate quota (TRQ) imports are assumed to total the minimum under World Trade
Organization commitments, other current trade agreements, and additional specialty sugar.  Other
program imports are projected based on trends.  Other imports are projected from trends
(molasses and syrups) and other updated analyses (imports from Mexico).
Key results for 2007/08:
• Compared with a year earlier, beginning stocks are nearly unchanged from 2006/07.
• Production of beet sugar decreases with lower area and a return to trend yield, following record-
high yields in 2006/07.  Cane sugar production increases due to a rebound in yields more than
offsetting lower area.
• Imports are projected to total 1.74 million short tons, raw value, including 75,000 tons of sugar
imports from Mexico.
• Total use increases 55,000 tons, as higher domestic consumption more than offsets lower exports
and other uses.
• Ending stocks total 1.2 million tons, or 11.4 percent of use.       2007 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Sweeteners Session
                            March 2, 2007
                  
                      U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
                        :           :       2006/07      :  2007/08
      Item              : 2005/06   :====================:============
                        :           : January   February : Projection
======================================================================
                        :           1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks        :   1,332       1,698     1,698       1,695
Production 2/           :   7,399       8,615     8,598       8,402
  Beet sugar            :   4,444       5,078     5,059       4,453
  Cane sugar            :   2,955       3,537     3,539       3,949
   Florida              :   1,367       1,756     1,756       2,082
   Hawaii               :     223         248       249         258
   Louisiana            :   1,190       1,335     1,336       1,419
   Texas                :     175         198       198         190
Imports                 :   3,443       2,103     1,964       1,738
  TRQ 3/                :   2,588       1,718     1,604       1,323
  Other program 4/      :     349         325       300         325
  Other 5/              :     506          60        60          90
    Mexico              :     420          50        50          75
     Total supply       :  12,174      12,416    12,260      11,835
                        :
Exports 2/              :     203         200       300         175
Deliveries 2/           :  10,341      10,415    10,265      10,445
  Food                  :  10,184      10,250    10,100      10,300
  Other 6/              :     157         165       165         145
Miscellaneous 7/        :     -68           0         0           0
     Total use          :  10,476      10,615    10,565      10,620
Ending stocks           :   1,698       1,801     1,695       1,215            
                        :
Stocks to use ratio     :    16.2        17.0      16.0        11.4
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1.  Historical data are from FSA, 
"Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census
Bureau).  2/ Projections for 2007/08 are from USDA Agricultural 
Projections to 2016. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota 
(TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to 
the fiscal year in which they actually arrived.  The 2007/08 TRQ 
assumes minimum imports under current trade agreements with shortfall 
(75,000) and additional specialty sugar (40,000).  4/ Includes sugar 
under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs.  5/ Includes 
high-tier, Mexico high-tier, and other.  6/ Transfers to sugar-
containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed.  
7/ Residual statistical discrepancies.

2007/08 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use

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