Measuring Underground (Unobserved, Non-Observed, Unrecorded) Economies in Transition Countries: Can We Trust GDP?

Abstract

This paper compiles alternative estimates of underground economies in twenty five transition countries during the transition decade and finds a disturbing lack of convergence between them, calling into question the reliability of GDP figures (which in varying degrees now include non-transparent imputations for the “nonobserved economy”) as well as the macro model estimates of the unrecorded economy.Underground, unrecorded, unobserved, non-observed, NOE, hidden, informal, shadow, GDP, national accounts, transition economies.