Detecting shift and pure contagion in East Asian equity markets: A Unified Approach.

Abstract

We test for contagion between pairs of East Asian equity markets over the period 1990-2007.We develop an econometric methodology that allows us to test for both 'shift'and 'pure' contagion within a unified framework. Using both Hong Kong and Thailand as potential shock sources, we find strong evidence of both types of contagion. Therefore during episodes of high-volatility, equity returns are influenced by changes in the transmission of common shocks and additionally by the diffusion of idiosyncratic shocks through linkages which do not exist during normal times.Shift contagion; Pure contagion; Financial market crises; Regime switching