Global climate change is one of the major issues today. There is a continuous rise in temperature escorted by the increasing frequencies of weather anomalies. In Hungary two facts can be observed: the ascending levels of temperature rise, with a magnitude of 1 Celsius and the annual precipitation decrease. Human activities are signii cantly altering the natural carbon cycle. Long-term rise in atmospheric CO(2) affects crop production regarding both 

adaptation and mitigation. The negative effects of climate change can be limited by changing crops and crop varieties, improved water-management and irrigation systems, adapted plant nutrition, protection and tillage practices, and 

better watershed management and land-use planning. The global potential of carbon sequestration through crop production, land use and soil management practices may of set one-fourth to one-third of the annual increase in 

atmospheric CO(2)

Birkás, Márta

Jolánkai, Márton

English

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17ORIGINAL SCIENTIFIC PAPERSummaryGlobal climate change is one of the major issues today. Th ere is a continuous rise in temperature escorted by the increasing frequencies of weather anomalies. In Hungary two facts can be observed: the ascending levels of temperature rise, with a magnitude of 1 oC and the annual precipitation decrease. Human activities are signifi cantly altering the natural carbon cycle. Long-term rise in atmospheric CO2 aff ects crop production regarding both adaptation and mitigation. Th e negative eff ects of climate change can be limited by changing crops and crop varieties, improved water-management and irrigation systems, adapted plant nutrition, protection and tillage practices, and better watershed management and land-use planning. Th e global potential of carbon sequestration through crop production, land use and soil management practices may off set one-fourth to one-third of the annual increase in atmospheric CO2. Key wordscarbon sequestration, climate change, crop production, soil conditionAgriculturae Conspectus Scientifi cus, Vol. 72 (2007) No. 1 (17-20)Global Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Hungary Marton JOLANKAI ( )Marta BIRKÁSSzent Istvan University, H-2100 Gödöllö, Hungary e-mail: Jolankai.Marton@mkk.szie.huReceived: February 13, 2007 | Accepted: March 10, 2007ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was supported by the National Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.Agric. conspec. sci. Vol. 72 (2007) No. 118 Marton JOLANKAI, Marta BIRKÁSIntroductionClimate change impacts are a major threat. Th e con-tinuous rise in temperature escorted by the increasing frequencies of weather anomalies is a global process. In Hungary two facts can be observed in the Carpathian basin: in fi rst place the ascending levels of temperature rise with a magnitude of 1oC. Th e other is the decreas-ing trend-line of annual precipitation according to which rainfall was diminished by 83 mm during one century (Fig 1). Human activities are signifi cantly altering the natural carbon cycle. During the past two centuries human activi-ties such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation have accelerated, and both have contributed to a long-term rise in atmospheric CO2. Th e Ministry of Environment and Water in cooperation with the Hungarian Academy of Sciences has launched a three year project (vahava) be-tween 2003 – 2006. Th e primary objective of the research was to analyse the changing nature of harmful or favo-rable meteorological eff ects with the goal to prevent the harmful eff ects, and make the best use of the favorable ones. Th is work should lead to determination of the eco-nomical, technical, and social factors, which may be rel-evant to damage control. Th e present paper will give some information regarding the results of the work of the crop production team of the project.Material and methodsTh e main objectives of the project: exploration of com-plex impacts of reliable scenarios on climate change; re-sponse suggestions and proposals, as well as emergency programmes which may prevent or lessen undesirable ef-fects on national and regional levels.Th e main characteristics of methodology are: large-scale system synthesis, interdisciplinary and multisecto-ral approach, and broad spectrum partnership relations. Th e agronomic faculties and agricultural research institu-tions of the country were involved in the crop production research team, which was coordinated by the Szent Istvan University, Institute of Crop Production.In planning the project, the IPCC scenarios were used as a start-point. Th e most likely pattern of climate change in the region including Hungary is characterized by the following assumptions: gradual warming will be notice-able, and the climate of the country may assume a more pronounced Mediterranean character; annual precipitation further declines, particularly in summer; the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events increase. Th e main research fi elds were the evaluation of the eva-potranspiration budget of major fi eld crops in relation with agronomic technologies and soil condition, and the carbon sequestration of crop biomass produced.Results and discussionHungary is a country exposed to continental and Mediterranean climatic eff ects. It would mean that the area is suitable for the cultivation of most crops. Heat amount is in optimum even for subtropical annual plants like maize, and precipitation, which ranges from 300 mm to 700 mm, enables this country to run a successful crop production. Most important climatic factors are light, heat, and precipitation. Light is one of the most important factors in the life of plants. Th e main characteristics are the quality (spectra), intensity and duration, temperature and heat. All crops require an optimum amount of heat during their life cycle. In Hungary the average heat amount is 3608 °C annually. According to the geographic location this may vary for ±5-10 %. Th e direct impact of temperature can be detected in most of life processes: photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, water inhibition, and mineral uptake. Precipitation is the major source of natural water 0100200300400500600700800900'10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 2000mmy = - 0,8313x + 2223,9190080090010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000oCtemperature meanlowhigh„little glacial”year1,5oCrangeFigure 1. Amount of annual precipitation and temperature trends in Central Europe (Time range of precipitation refers to the 20th Century, temperature changes are calculated on mean values of the 11th-20th Centuries period. SourceVarga-Haszonits 2003)Agric. conspec. sci. Vol. 72 (2007) No. 119Global Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Hungarysupply. Th ere are two major characteristics of that; one is the amount of water (500-700mm is suffi  cient for all sort of crops) and the other is the distribution. In the summer, only 60-80 % of percipitation can be utilized by plants, since high evapotranspiration rates occur (Fig 2).Soil factors highly infl uence the life of plants. Soil struc-ture is composed of its ingredients, ie. organic and inor-ganic components, their amount, size, distribution and geometrical orientation. Soils as materials are made up of three phases; solid (organic and mineral), liquid (water and solutions) and gaseous materials. Th e geometric ori-entation of soil particles determines the soil texture. Soil is the medium that provides water and nutrients to plants. At this geographic latitude plants require 250-400 g of water to build 1 g of dry matter. Th is water/dry matter ratio is called the transpiration coeffi  cient. Since cultivated plants produce far more dry matter compared to natural vegeta-tion, consequently their water demand is higher as well. From the aspect of soil management water storage and supply abilities of soils of a certain fi eld should be deter-mined (Fig 3).Atmospheric rise of CO2 aff ects crop production re-garding both adaptation and mitigation. Th e negative ef-020406080100120140X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII020406080100120140160IV V VI VII VIII IX XWinter wheat ( )Triticum aestivum Maize ( )Zea maysprecipitationevapotranspirationprecipitationevapotranspirationFigure 2. Evapotranspiration budget of field crops, mm/month, Gödöllő-Nagygombos, 40 years mean C wt H wt N wt O wt S wt Mol weight C % glycine 24 5 14 32 0 75 32.000alanine 36 7 14 32 0 89 40.449serine 36 7 14 48 0 105 34.286cysteine 36 7 14 32 32 121 29.752phenylalanine 108 11 14 32 0 165 65.455tyrosine 108 11 14 48 0 181 59.669tryptophan 132 12 28 32 0 204 64.706valine 60 11 14 32 0 117 51.282threonine 48 9 14 48 0 119 40.336methionin 60 11 14 32 32 149 40.268leucine 72 13 14 32 0 131 54.962isoleucine 72 13 14 32 0 131 54.962proline 60 6 14 32 0 112 53.571histidine 72 9 42 32 0 155 46.452arginine 60 14 56 32 0 162 37.037lysine 72 14 28 32 0 146 49.315asaparaticacid 48 7 14 64 0 133 36.090asparagine 48 7 28 48 0 131 36.641glutamicacid 60 10 14 64 0 148 40.541glutamine 60 10 28 48 0 146 41.096carbohydrate 12 2 0 16 0 30 40.000glutatione 120 17 42 96 32 307 39.088very strongstrongmediumweakHarmful climate impactstrongmedium-strongmild-mediummildSoil sensitivity100908070605040302010Ratio of soilaggregates(clod-crumb-dust)clod: 20-30%, crumb: a30 %, dust: 30-50%clod: 10-20%, crumb: 30-50%, dust: 30-50%clod: 10-20%, crumb: 50-70 %, dust: 10-20 %:clod: d10%,crumb: a80 %, dust: d10 %%Table 1. Carbon content of some amino-acids, carbohydrates and polypeptidesFigure 3. Agronomic value of soil conditionsAgric. conspec. sci. Vol. 72 (2007) No. 120 Marton JOLANKAI, Marta BIRKÁSfects of climate change can be limited by changes in crops and crop varieties, improved water-management and ir-rigation systems, adapted plant nutrition, protection and tillage practices, and better watershed management and land-use planning. Th e global potential of carbon seques-tration through crop production, land use and soil man-agement practices may off set one-fourth to one-third of the annual increase in atmospheric CO2. Table 1 summarizes the carbon content of some essential plant compounds and substances. Th e annual carbon sink of plant biomass ex-ceeds carbon source releases. Also renewable energy pro-vides a chance for replacing fossil fuel uses.ConclusionTh e global potential of carbon sequestration through crop production, land use and soil management practices may off set one-fourth to one-third of the annual increase in atmospheric CO2. Major conclusions of the study:– Improved management techniques and practices may off set 1/3-1/4th of annual CO2 increase. – Energy uses based on fossil fuel combustion should be controlled globally.ReferencesJolánkai M., Máté A., Nyárai H.F. (2005): Th e carbon cycle: a sink-source role of crop plants. Cereal Research Communications, 33.1. 13-17 pp.Lal R. (2004): Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Geoderma, 123. 1-22 pp.Lawlor D.W. (2002): Carbon and nitrogen assimilation in relation to yield: mechanisms are the key to understanding production systems. Journal of Experimental Botany, 53. 773-787 pp.acs72_04

Global Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Hungary

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