Starting from the available statistical information this paper proposes an analysis of the ecological dimension of the Romanian economy. Considering the crucial importance of reducing carbon dioxide emissions to diminishing greenhouse effects an econometrical model has been conceived so as to study the correlation between these emissions and their main determinants. Some major difficulties in detailed environmental data collection and constructing long time series have been revealed on this occasion.

Constantin Mitrut

English

Research Papers in Economics

41
ST CONGRESS OF THE ERSA 
ZAGREB, AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 1, 2001 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF  
THE ECOLOGICAL DIMENSION OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY 
 
 
 
CONSTANTIN MITRUT 
Academy of Economic Studies of Bucharest 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ABSTRACT. Starting from the available statistical information this paper proposes an 
analysis of the ecological dimension of the Romanian economy. Considering the crucial 
importance of reducing carbon dioxide emissions to diminishing greenhouse effects an 
econometrical model has been conceived so as to study the correlation between these 
emissions and their main determinants. Some major difficulties in detailed environmental data 
collection and constructing long time series have been revealed on this occasion.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
1. Introduction The environmental quality in Romania is mainly affected by the irrational exploitation of the 
natural resources, the negative impact of many economic activities, inadequate urban 
structures – sometimes in conflict with human settlements development, transborder 
pollution, etc. The relation between the socio-economic system and the ecological equilibrium 
can be analysed starting from the objectives of the environmental protection strategy, which 
concentrate on the available natural resources, the level of the socio-economic life and the 
quality of the environmental factors. It induces the need of measuring the influence of 
economic activity upon environmental factors and the quality of these factors, the financing 
capacity of environmental protection, the impact of environmental conditions on human life. 
The major difficulty of such a research is data collection. As previously mentioned, 
the available statistical data sources are insufficient, only partially covering the environmental 
issues. On the other hand the structure of the published information is frequently modified, 
even from a year to the next one, making it even more difficult the construction of complete 
statistical distributions, as needed for analysing various evolutions and elaborating 
econometric models. 
 
2. The ecological dimension of the Romanian economy: an analysis based on the 
available statistical information 
Considering the available data for 1998, Romania can be described as a country of 22.503 
million inhabitants, with a density of 94.3 inhabitants per square km, the GDP per capita of 
4244 USD and the average life expectancy (in 1997) of 68.95 years.  
The state and the evolution of the environmental factors can be understood firstly 
considering the major changes occurred over the last years. Before 1990 Romania was a 
country characterised by an economic activity industry dominated (with a contribution of 
more than 50% to GDP). The main industrial activities used to concentrate on machinery 
building, chemistry, construction materials, etc. The industrial development exerted a big 
pressure on the available natural resources, which were abusively exploited, with considerable 
repercussions on the natural environment. Industrial giants – huge energy consumers, changed 
the ecological equilibrium in many geographical areas. The pollution and the ecological 
protection were not seriously considered. As a result, the health state of population was 
deeply affected: in 1989 the mortality rate was 10.7‰, the child mortality 26.9‰ and the 
average life expectancy at birth of 69.56 years. 
 Since 1990 the economic activity has recorded a significant decline in all sectors. The 
different dynamics by sector has induced important changes in the GDP structure by category 
of resources, mainly reflected by the decrease in the share of industry and agriculture and the 
service share increase (Table 1). 
Table 1 
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY CATEGORY OF RESOURCES 
 
Resource 1990  1992  1995  1997 
     Structure  (%) 
Agriculture 
Industry 
Construction 
Services 
21,8 
40,5 
  5,4 
26,5 
19,1 
38,3 
  4,8 
40,6 
20,4 
32,7 
  6,6 
38,0 
17,7 
35,5 
  5,2 
41,6 
 
Indices (%) 
Agriculture 
Industry 
Construction 
GDP – total 
        - per capita 
 
100 
100 
100 
100 
100 
76,5 
79,2 
76,1 
79,4 
80,9 
94,2 
83,1 
    128,9 
89,8 
91,9 
89,1 
83,5 
   103,5 
86,8 
89,5 
Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 1998, p. 340 - 342 
 
 
 
Agriculture. In 1997 the agricultural area represented approximately 62% out of the national 
territory (14794 thousand ha). The decline of the agricultural activity has been associated with 
a weak land use and even its abandoning in some cases, leading to an important deterioration 
of the agricultural land. Large surfaces are affected by different factors limiting the 
productive capacity (Table 2). Some of these factors have a large extension, between 40% and 
50% out of the total surface: frequent drought (48%), water 
soil erosion (43%), soil compaction owing to inadequate works (44%), small and very small 
humus deposit in soil (49%), very weak and weak ensuring with mobile phosphorus  
(43%). 
 
Table  2 
AGRICULTURAL LAND AREA AFFECTED BY DIFFERENT LIMITATION FACTORS 
OF THE PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, IN 1997 
Limitation factor  Affected area 
(thou ha) 
Frequent drought  7100 Frequent water excess in soil 
Water soil erosion 
Landslide 
Wind soil erosion 
Excessive skeleton from soil surface 
Soil salt 
Soil compaction owing to inadequate works ("plough 
sole") 
Soil natural compaction 
Crust formation 
Small and very small humus deposit in soil 
Strong and moderate acidity 
High alkalinity 
Very weak and weak ensuring with mobile phosphorus 
Weak ensuring with nitrogen 
Deficiency of microelements (zinc) 
Soil chemical pollution due to different socio-economic 
activities 
Pollution with oil and salty water 
Pollution with wind carried substances 
3781 
6300 
              702 
              378 
              300 
              614 
6500 
 
2060 
2300 
7304 
3420 
              220 
6289 
4883 
1500 
              900 
                 
                50 
               147 
Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 1998, pg.48 
 
 
 
The soil arrangement works – irrigation, draining, fighting soil erosion, were not significantly 
modified over the last ten years and did not have a positive influence on the agriculture 
productivity. Some positive influences on the environment have had the decreasing use of 
chemical substances (Table 3). 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3 
CHEMICAL SUBSTANCES USED IN AGRICULTURE  
                                                                                        
Year Chemical  fertilisers 
( kg/ha) 
Pesticides 
(kg/ha) 
1989 
1990 
1991 
1992 
1993 
1994 
1995 
1996 
1997 
78 
75 
32 
29 
37 
33 
32 
29 
27 
4,8 
3,5 
1,8 
1,7 
1,6 
1,5 
1,4 
1,2 
1,1 Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 1998, pg. 454 - 455 
 
 
Industry. The decline of the industrial activity during the transition period has determined a 
decrease of polluting emissions. One of the activities of the highest impact on the 
environment is the energy sector, which discharges big quantities of polluting substances 
(sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon dioxide, etc.) as a result of coal, petroleum, natural 
gas combustion. In 1992 the electric and thermal energy production was 15% lower than in 
1990, respectively 7% lower in 1997. The energy production is more and more based on coal 
use whereas the available primary resources have been dramatically decreased, by 33% for 
liquid fuel, 25% for solid fuel and more than 45% for gas fuel (Table 4). 
Table 4  
RESOURCES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FOR CONSUMPTION 
                                                                           thou tone C.F. 
Resource 1990  1995  1996  1997 
Liquid fuel 
Solid fuel 
Gas fuel 
27354 
17828 
40960 
19255 
15497 
27891 
18766 
15347 
28255 
18796 
13918 
22911 
Source: The Environment in Romania. Annual Bulletin, National Commission for Statistics, 
Bucharest, 1988, p.30 
 
Transport. The transport activity affects the environment through emissions eliminated by the 
transport means and also by the nature of transported goods. The volume of transport means 
has increased, particularly for road transport. The number of cars increased in 1997 by 63.6% 
compared to the level of 1992 (the majority are second hand, imported cars, not observing the 
pollution standards). The number of merchandise motor vehicles has also increased by 39.3%. 
In the same period an increase in the volume of transported goods – harmful to the 
environment (especially chemical and oil products), has been recorded for both rail and road 
transport. 
 
The changes recorded in the economic activity have induced changes in the quality of the 
environmental factors as well. 
 Air quality. The maximum admitted concentration is currently exceeded in some localities for 
a couple of high frequency substances, having a constant upward dynamics between 1990 and 
1997, in spite of the overall decrease of the polluting emissions generated by the economic 
activity decline. According to the frequency of exceeding the maximum admitted 
concentration the worst situation was recorded for lead (69.5%) and sulphur dioxide (47%). 
 
Water quality. The waters hold approximately 3.7% out of the total territory. Around 50% of 
the Romanian surface waters are of a high quality (first quality category) whereas by 14% are 
included into the third category (the poorest quality). The 1990-1997 trend indicates a 
decrease in the length of polluted sectors and an increase in the percentage of the first 
category rivers. 
 
Soil quality. In 1997 the surfaces affected by pollution, erosion, drought, salting, etc. 
represent a significant percentage out of the total agricultural area (Table 1). The soil quality 
has been damaged as a result of irrational natural resource exploitation, incorrect irrigation 
solutions, pesticide treatments superficially controlled. 
 
Forest quality. The forest surface represents approximately 28% out of the national territory, 
being dramatically reduced over the last fifty years. At present, even though the volume of the 
exploited wood does not increase, the irrational exploitation generates a serious negative 
impact on the environment and human security (frequent floods, material and human loses). 
The forest quality is mainly expressed by the percentage of forests affected by tree 
defoliation. In 1997 by 57% out of the forest area was not affected by this phenomenon, 26% 
was slightly affected, 15% was in the average defoliation class whereas about 2% was 
drastically affected or already dead. However, in general terms the quality of Romanian 
forests can be considered in accordance with the European quality standards. 
 
Waste administration. The economic activities released around 328 million tones of waste in 
1994 (mainly industrial waste). The storage creates particular problems to the environmental 
protection: soil damage, air and water pollution. 
In the cities household wastes reached in 1994 5.8 million tones. They are usually stored near 
the human settlements and the surface waters, without clear control rules and measures for 
preventing pollution. As a consequence, waste administration remains one of the most serious 
problems of the environmental management in the next years.  
The environmental protection expenditures are mainly oriented to activity sectors like electric 
and thermal energy, gas and water (40%), manufacturing (25%), waste treatment (10%). The 
structure by specific activity of environmental protection is the following: pollution 
prevention and control – 88.4%, natural environment protection – 7%, research, development 
and training – only 2.2%, general environmental administration – 2.4%. In all cases the 
current expenses exceed by two times investment expenses. The situation described reveals a 
limited perception of the environmental issues, of the ecological equilibrium, subordinated to 
the production resource provision rather than to ecological constraints. 
 
The quality of life has diminished dramatically within the overall unfavourable economic 
situation, characterised by a continuous decrease in GDP and production volume, an 
unemployment rate by 10%, a high inflation rate (hardly maintained at around 50% per year), 
a low level of social protection, an extreme decrease in the real income, low level of 
consumption, of an irrational structure, poor health assistance. Under these conditions the 
basic demographic indicators highlight the following situation: 
• a negative natural increase since 1992; 
• the general mortality rate increased from 10.7‰ in 1989 to 12.4‰ in 1997; 
• even though the infant mortality rate (infant death per 1000 life births) slowly decreased 
from 26.9 in 1989 to 22.0 in 1997, it maintains Romania at a high level among the European 
countries, only Albania having an infant mortality rate higher than Romania; 
• the life expectancy at birth dropped from 69.76 years in 1989 – 1991 to 68.95 years in 1995 
– 1997. 
Taking into account the quite poor state of the environmental statistics, the influences 
of the environment degradation upon population’s health can be hardly identified, even 
though these influences certainly occur. Yet, starting from the existing data, the decrease in 
the new severe illness cases (Table 5) can be considered a consequence of the positive 
evolution of the environmental quality over the last ten years. 
 
Table 5 
NEW CASES OF ILLNESS, BY DISEASE CLASS 
                                                                                                                                   thou persons 
                                              
Disease class 
1992 1995  1997 
Neoplasm 45  37  35 
Mental disorders  192  152  136 Diseases of the 
nervous system and of 
the sense organs 
1088 901  795 
Diseases of the 
respiratory system 
6887 7439  7160 
Skin and hypodermic 
diseases 
966 983  847 
Congenital 
malformations 
4 3  3 
Source: Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 1998, p. 229 
 
3. An econometrical model for studying the relationship between the carbon dioxide 
emissions and the main factors of influence 
Considering the importance of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions to diminishing 
greenhouse effects an econometric model has been conceived so as to study the relationship 
between the carbon dioxide emissions and the main factors of influence. Even though there 
are many aspects of environmental protection vital to everyday life, with immediate impact 
on human security, this analysis has been chosen considering that carbon dioxide emissions 
represent a continuous threat, of a long run impact on global warming, with all derived 
consequences. In this context the use of an econometric model is important to revealing stable 
relationships over time. 
In the specific case of Romania the construction of econometric models is strongly 
dependent on the statistical data problem, in the following terms: 
• long series of data cannot be obtained, as required by the assumptions of the parameter 
estimation methods; 
• in some cases data are not entirely comparable; 
• the poor development of the statistical system in the environmental field makes it difficult to 
find available data for some important variables. 
  Nevertheless, in the particular case of carbon dioxide emissions data series can be 
constructed, even though the drawbacks mentioned above make it possible to obtain data 
series only for 1990 – 1997. This situation has to be considered in result interpretation. 
Between 1990 and 1997 the carbon dioxide emissions dropped by 20% as a result of 
both reducing and restructuring the economic activity and increasing environmental 
protection expenditures. 
The model proposed has aimed to express the carbon dioxide emissions (Y) as a 
resultant variable depending upon two independent variables, namely the volume of industrial 
activity in comparable prices (I) and the number of cars (A). Apart from the sign of restrictions derived from the economic theory, the choice of 
equation has been primarily based on the adjusted R-squared, t-statistic, F-statistic and DW. 
The OLS method has been used for parameter estimation. 
Finally the carbon dioxide emissions have been expressed using the following linear 
function: 
Yt = -6235.6 + 0.023662 It + 0.000935 At 
According to F-stat and t-stat the model is valid and highlights the increase in carbon 
dioxide emissions as a result of car number increase. It also reveals that industry is an 
important factor of increasing carbon dioxide emissions. Practically, excepting industry and 
transportation the other economic activities have a very reduced contribution. Thus the model 
suggests the importance of restructuring processes according to environmental restrictions so 
as to support those industrial branches less harmful to environment. 
The information provided by the model results can be considered as a useful starting 
point for a proper investment structure within forthcoming environmental strategies so as to 
include not only aggregate indicators but also analytical structures of investment. 
Under the new conditions the values of the model parameters will be certainly 
changed and will reflect more rational correlations. 
In the construction of such models the question of data accuracy remains essential. 
Thus in the reports on the carbon dioxide emissions level the measurements were indicated as 
the source of data whereas, in fact, the emissions were estimated on the basis of fuel 
consumption, all models indicating a very strong correlation between these two indicators. 
Hence, the usefulness of the model proposed, which focuses on the importance of industrial 
structural changes. 
 
Note: This paper represents a development of the author’s contribution to the Romanian case 
study presented at the ENRICH-NES Workshop held in San José de la Montagna, Costa Rica 
in December 1999. 
 

A statistical assessment of the ecological dimension of the Romanian economy

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A statistical assessment of the ecological dimension of the Romanian economy

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