Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Henderson, Dennis R.

English

Research Papers in Economics

IMPLICATIONS  OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE  FOR
POLICY EDUCATORS
Dennis R. Henderson
Ohio State University
It is obvious  to even the casual  observer that the demographics  of
United States society are dynamic and sometimes change in ways that
were neither foreseen  nor totally understood.  It is equally obvious, as
illustrated  by the comments  of the  previous panelists, that such  de-
mographic changes have numerous implications  for various segments
of our society and, in turn, give rise to a wide array of potential public
policy issues.
As policy educators, we need to be ever alert to such issues. But my
intent is not to revisit these issues nor to dwell  on their relationship
to  demographic  change.  Rather,  the  focus  of my remarks  is  on  the
implications  for how  we do public policy  analysis and  education and
to whom it is directed.  To do this, permit me to concentrate  on three
somewhat disjointed,  but seemingly interrelated,  topics:  (1)  key  groups,
or clusters, of demographic  trends that appear to be particularly  rel-
evant in determining how we approach  public policy education rather
than how  we  identify policy  issues per  se,  (2)  implications  of these
demographic  trends  for identifying  our clientele,  and (3)  implications
for the theories,  models,  techniques,  and  methods that we use in the
process  of carrying  on  with  our  policy  analysis  and  education  pro-
grams.
I do not claim to fully understand, nor have I comprehensively  iden-
tified, all of the linkages between demographic change  and policy ed-
ucation. Some that I do discuss may strike you as wrong, incomplete,
and/or misconstrued.  Some  may make you uncomfortable,  or perhaps
even  a  bit bridled.  If so,  my  purpose  - to  challenge  you  to  begin
thinking about the implications  of demographic change for how we do
our job - has been achieved.
Key Demographic  Developments
I  have  identified  five  clusters  or  sets  of demographic  trends  and
changes  that appear to me to have useful implications  for the  design
and implementation  of public  policy  education  programs.  While  the
relationships among all  of the factors in each cluster may not be ap-
29parent,  I believe  these will become  somewhat more clear in the sub-
sequent  discussion.
Those that affect household consumption patterns: The  increasing
participation  of women in the labor force (up from 43.3 percent to 52.6
percent;1 declining household size  (down from an average of 3.14 per-
sons  to  2.72  persons);  growth  in  single  person  households  (up  from
17.1 percent to 23.2 percent of all households) and single parent house-
holds  (a  doubling  of the number  of children  living  in  single  parent
households);  and  reduced  expectation  of marriage  (an increase  from
6.2 percent  to  11.6  percent  for women  and  from  9.4  percent to  17.3
percent  for men,  age 30-34 years,  never married).
Those that affect people's interest in public affairs: Significant  in-
creases in the number of people attending college, particularly women,
blacks,  and  hispanics  (an increase  from  18  percent  to  29  percent  of
females,  from  10  to  22 percent  for blacks,  and from  11  to  19 percent
for Hispanics,  persons 25  or older completing  at least one year of col-
lege);  an increase in the share of total employment  in white collar and
service  jobs  (where, it can  be hypothesized,  people  can  more readily
discuss things  with others, including public affairs, than in manufac-
turing,  mining,  and farming);  and a recent turnaround  in the decline
in voter participation rates (an increase  from 45.9 percent  to 48.5 per-
cent of all eligible voters between  1978 and 1982).
Those that affect perceptions of the importance  of earned income: The
aging population (an increase  in median age from  27.9 years to  30.6
years); slowing birthrate (a decline in the average lifetime fertility per
woman  from  2.5  to  1.8);  declining  death  rate  (a  decrease  from  9.4
deaths per thousand  people  to 8.6);  and an  increasing  importance of
social  security  and  other retirement  benefits  as  sources  of personal
income.  Also  significant  is  an  increase  in  the  relative  share  of the
rural population  made  up of older people.
Those that affect who chooses to live where: The "rural turnaround"
of the  1970s,  which  saw the  rate of population  growth  in nonmetro-
politan  counties  reach  15.8  percent between  1970  and  1980, substan-
tially greater than the 9.8 percent growth rate for metropolitan counties.
This was a one decade  reversal of trends  underway since about 1920.
Of particular  interest  in the  1970-80  reversal  is the  relatively  large
movement of retirement-aged persons and "pleasure farmers" to rural
areas (the latter term being used to describe a broad category of people
who moved to rural residences that included enough  acreage to  allow
some farming-type activities).  Also figuring into this cluster has been
a decline  in the share of farm workers  living on farms  (in 1982  only
46  percent  of all  farm  workers  lived  on  farms)  and  in  the  share  of
farms operated  by  someone  other than a farmer  (in 1982,  45  percent
'The  numbers cited parenthetically refer to  1970 (first reference) and 1982 (second reference)  as  reported in
Population Profile  of the  United  States  in  1982,  U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the  Census, Series P-
23,  No.  130.
30of all farms were operated by someone whose principal occupation was
other than farming).
Those that affect the cultural balance: A significant  increase  in,  or
increasing awareness of, illegal immigrants from Latin America; large
immigrations  of Asian  refugees  from  Vietnam,  Cambodia,  and  Laos
since the early 1970s; an influx of Cuban and Haitian refugees in 1980;
and a 3.7  percent rate of growth  in the population with an Hispanic
origin between  1970 and  1982  compared to a  1.1 percent overall pop-
ulation growth rate.
Implications for Clientele
In  this  section,  I  turn to  the question  of how  these  demographic
developments  influence the types of people who are potential students
in  our policy  education  programs.  My  emphasis  is  on three  broadly
defined groups which appear to warrant more attention than they have
traditionally  received.  It does not directly touch  on traditional clien-
tele  who may  be candidates  for  de-emphasis.  Although  I believe  the
latter to be  an equally  relevant issue,  I  find my own thinking bound
up  in  the  traditional  difficulty  of saying  "no"  to  those  with  whom
working relationships  have long been established.
The Professions. Those  demographic  developments  that  result  in
changes in household consumption patterns indirectly change the need
and demand for numerous professional services.  In the past, I contend,
we have  been primarily attentive to the implications  of consumption
changes for production and distributive  workers, leading us to exam-
ine policy issues such as those dealing with employment  opportunities,
wages,  commodity prices, investment,  and technology.  With  the rate
of demographics-derived  consumptive  change  quite possibly  acceler-
ating, the traditional policy related issues remain important. But, the
indirect  impacts on the professions may be more pronounced and less
obvious.
An  example  is  illustrative.  A  declining  trend  in  per  capita  con-
sumption  of livestock products  has become  well  established  over the
past  15  years,  at least  in part  associated with demographic  change.
Policy implications for the livestock and feed grain sectors abound, are
reasonably  clear,  and have captured much attention by policy educa-
tors.  But this also  affects  the  demand  for veterinary  services  to the
food livestock industries. Starting with the size and curriculum of pub-
lic instruction  in veterinary medicine  and ending well beyond my  scope
of vision are numerous  public policy issues  of actual  and/or potential
concern  to this profession.  I  suspect that with little difficulty  similar
lines can be drawn in the fields of human health care,  mental health,
community management,  law, and many others.
The  point:  As  professional  policy  analysts  and  educators  we may
have  a tendency  to define  our potential  clientele  too narrowly,  thus
31excluding  groups  to  whom  we  can be  of considerable  service.  To ex-
clude professionals  in  other  fields  is  probably  a  natural  response  -
we  tend  to  be  discipline  oriented,  generally  to  economics,  and  give
relatively  little thought to what we can gain from other  disciplines.  I
suspect  that many of us even  feel uncomfortable  in asking the ques-
tion,  "What  can we  do  for  other professionals?"  Yet, recent personal
experience  in  seminars  with  the  veterinary  medicine  faculty  at  my
university has  convinced  me that our perspective  as policy educators
is both needed and appreciated  by other professional  groups.
The General Public. I  suppose  we  all  would  claim  that  our policy
education  efforts,  if not directed  at the general public,  at least do  not
exclude this rather ill-defined group of people. However, I suggest that
there  are  compelling  reasons  why  we  should  put  forward  a  concen-
trated effort to reach a broader cross section of the country's population
than whatever  "spillover"  results from  attention directed  to  our tra-
ditional clientele.
Demographic  trends are strongly  suggestive of a turn toward broader
public  interest  in  public  affairs.  Increased  voter  participation,  im-
proved education  levels,  and more people in work environments  that
foster personal interaction  are, I believe,  obvious factors. Immigration
also  figures  in  as  many  refugees  are  escaping  regimes  of political
repression.
The aging,  particularly  retirees,  present a unique  opportunity.  In-
creasing numbers of retired people are highly educated and have vast
experience  as observers  of,  and participants  in, the  political  process,
at the very least as voters. They have time to devote to public affairs,
and are facing  an increasing  number of years of active (but not wage
earning)  life. They have proven themselves to be effective in influenc-
ing public  policy.  Witness the singular  success  of retired persons  re-
garding  social security.  In addition  to  constituting a very  viable and
potentially  influential clientele group for policy education,  this group
offers many potential  resources  that can  be tapped for direct  support
of our policy education programs.
One  other  group  of persons,  which  perhaps  gets lost  in the  broad
categorization  of the general public, deserves to be lifted up for special
attention.  These  are  the  illegal  immigrants.  Demographic  data  sug-
gest that this group is becoming relatively more important  as part of
the overall  population.  It clearly provides  a source of low-cost  labor to
much of agriculture,  other than the highly mechanized  field crop  and
livestock enterprises  of the types that characterize Midwest  farming.
A public  policy of illegal  immigration  would  seem  to be  tailor-made
in support of labor intensive agricultural  enterprise. Indeed, this may
have  all  the necessary  ingredients  to  fit into  the  framework  of this
afternoon's  session  dealing with policy  education on controversial  is-
sues.
Policymakers. Perhaps it seems prosaic to include this group  in my
32list of nontraditional  clientele for policy education.  No doubt all of us
have included policymakers under  the "audience"  heading of our plans-
of-work at one time or another.
Yet, I feel  compelled to include them here for two reasons. First, as
we become increasingly  aware of the  impacts of demographic  change
on the evolution of public policy issues and options, we have a respon-
sibility  to help  policymakers,  as well  as others, better understand these
demographics-policy  issue linkages.  Second,  and perhaps more impor-
tant,  it gives me  the  opportunity  to remind  us that the functions  of
the policymaker  are different from that of the policy educator.  Ours is
the task of recognizing and abstracting  policy issues so that they  can
be  understood  and  addressed  in  an  alternative  and  consequences
framework,  and  of conveying  as  accurately  as  possible  the  abstract
consequences of abstract options to these abstract issues. Theirs is the
task of compromise  - of compromising  between real  conflicts  among
real people. To the extent we do our job well, their job is not necessarily
easier, but it should be done better. The  policy educator's job does not
substitute  for the task of the policymaker.
Implications  for the Policy  Education Process
Just as demographic  developments  seem to  suggest different  clien-
tele opportunities for policy education,  so do they point to some differ-
ent considerations regarding how we approach the task of policy analysis
and education.  Obvious are the implications for involving all relevant
clientele groups  in both planning and implementation, which is noth-
ing more than the  sound program development procedures that have
served us well historically.
Less  obviously,  but to  my  way  of thinking  considerably  more  im-
portant - and difficult,  is  the  need  to  reassess  and probably  revise
the  social  values  that  we  assume  when  defining  issues,  developing
policy alternatives,  and  assessing  consequences.  There are a number
of demographic  trends that, along  with other factors,  point to funda-
mental  changes in what people  want from their social system.  These
include:
*  Traditional rural values, including agricultural  fundamentalism,
have  undoubtedly  been permanently  altered by the "rural turn-
around"  of the  1970s  even  though  that reverse  migration  now
appears to have been transitory. Many people with nontraditional
views  of what rural  society  should be moved  into rural commu-
nities and  have  stayed - even  if more  have  not  followed  - at
least long enough  to influence  values and beliefs.  Clearly,  large
numbers of retired  persons and pleasure  farmers  value nonprod-
ucing lifestyles more than the values associated with agricultural
fundamentalism.  One wonders,  for example,  how consistent  the
new "hybrid" rural values are with policies favoring family farms.
33*  Many nationalistic  values,  such as the work ethic,  acceptance  of
property rights,  and the existing distribution  of resource  owner-
ship, are certainly challenged and no doubt modified by immigra-
tion,  migration,  educational  advancement,  and  other  cultural
developments.  Obviously,  illegal  immigrants  do  not  accept  the
existing work rights of citizens.  Little imagination is required  to
think of numerous other  examples.
*  The increasing share of the population with some form of "income
guarantee,"  including  retired people with  social  security and other
pensions  and  others with  income  entitlements  of various  types,
undoubtedly  increases  the relative  importance  of nonpecuniary
factors  as influences  in motivating human behavior.
These  implied  changes  in values  cast  serious  questions  on  the  re-
levancy  of widely accepted  and generally  received  tools for economic
analysis  of policy  issues  and  alternatives.  For  example,  pareto  opti-
mality  conditions  for  welfare  maximization  depend  upon acceptance
of a given  distribution  of property rights.  The efficiency  objective  so
often,  at least  implicitly, assumed  in policy analysis  is  clearly based
upon  maximization  of pecuniary  gains.  Value  changes  cast  serious
questions  on the relevancy of both the maximizing and efficiency  cri-
teria.
The challenges  to policy analysts and educators  are significant.  We
must learn how to identify changes in social values and devise methods
to incorporate nonmaximizing  and subefficiency  goals into the behav-
ioral  functions of our  analytical  and  descriptive  models.  This means
that we must challenge  traditional  theories  and develop new concep-
tual frameworks that yield equal or even improved predictive accuracy
without  the use of an assumed  efficiency  maximizing  social objective
function. If we are successful,  we might also see a reduction in the gap
between the  abstract and the compromise.
34THE CHANGING FACE OF
AGRICULTURE

IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE FOR POLICY EDUCATORS

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Research Papers in Economics