Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

Cropp, Robert A.

Jesse, Edward V.

English

Research Papers in Economics

   
 
MARKETING AND POLICY  
BRIEFING PAPER 
   
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison 
Cooperative Extension, University of Wisconsin-Extension 
 
 
Paper No. 73 
November 2001 
 
 
Federal Milk Marketing Order Reform (Continued) 
 
Ed Jesse and Bob Cropp
1 
 
 
The process of federal milk order reform that began with passage of the 1996 farm bill 
proceeded another step forward on October 19, 2001, when USDA issued yet another 
recommended decision.  This decision altered certain parts of the interim final decision issued 
on December 1, 2000.  Specifically, the 2000 interim final rule, among other changes, 
established a Class III butterfat price separate from the Class IV butterfat price.  Before the 
new butterfat pricing rules became effective, several industry groups successfully sought an 
injunction in federal court.  The most recent decision conforms to the injunction by formally 
altering the 2000 decision to retain common Class III and Class IV butterfat values.  A few 
other modifications to the 2000 decision were made, the most important one being a revision 
of the protein price equation that eliminates the anomalous negative effect of butter prices on 
the Class III price.  USDA will accept comments on its recommended decision through 
November 26, 2001 and issue a final decision for a producer referendum shortly thereafter. 
 
 
A review of federal milk marketing order reform 
 
Section 143 of the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 mandated the 
consolidation and “reform” of federal milk orders.  There were few specifics: The number of 
orders could be no fewer than 10 and no more than 14.  California could petition to obtain a 
federal order, and a California order could reblend revenues to recognize quota values.  The 
Secretary was authorized (not obligated) to use utilization rates and multiple basing points for 
the pricing of fluid milk and uniform multiple component pricing for manufacturing milk. 
 
                                                 
1 Professors and Dairy Marketing Specialists, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of 
Wisconsin-Madison/Extension. 
     
The views expressed are those of the author(s).  Comments are welcome and should be sent to: Marketing and Policy Briefing 
Paper, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706. USDA was required to complete a “progress report” on consolidation and reform by April 1, 
1997, issue proposed amendments no later than January 1998 and issue final rules no later 
than January 1999 with implementation by April 1999.  Funding for the order program would 
be terminated if these deadlines were not met except in the event of court injunctions that 
delayed implementation. 
 
USDA took its task seriously, conducting several internal analyses and commissioning even 
more outside studies.  The principal issues addressed were order consolidation, pricing of 
manufacturing classes and component pricing, uniform classification, and the structure of 
Class I differentials.  The last issue proved to be the most contentious. 
 
USDA issued a proposed rule by the January 1998 deadline and a final rule in March 1999.  
The final rule adopted modified “Option 1B” Class I differentials, which were substantially 
“flattened” from existing differentials. In particular, the rule reduced Class I differentials in 
the Northeast by $0.63 per hundredweight.  Following a producer referendum in which all of 
the new orders were approved, a Federal District court in Vermont issued an injunction 
against implementing the amendments.  Later in 1999, Congress passed legislation as part of 
an omnibus spending bill to require adoption of “Option 1A” differentials, which were 
slightly higher than existing differentials in most markets and retained the existing 
geographical Class I price surface in markets east of the Rocky Mountains.  The same 
legislation also mandated USDA to reconsider the Class III and Class IV formulas included in 
the amendments and implement any new formulas by January 1, 2001. 
 
The modified amended orders became effective on January 1, 2000.  The principal changes 
were:
2 
 
Consolidation of orders from 31 to 11. 
 
Replacement of the Basic Formula Price with a system of product price formulas that 
relate milk component values to product prices and assumed yields and make 
allowances.   
 
Adoption of the higher of advanced Class III or Class IV skim milk values as the price 
mover for Class I skim milk.  
 
In response to the Congressional mandate to reconsider Class III and Class IV formulas, 
USDA conducted a hearing in May 2000.  A major portion of the hearing was devoted to the 
formulas generating Class III prices.  A particular problem was the Class III protein price 
formula, which attempted to adjust for the difference in the value of butterfat used in cheese 
versus butter.  This resulted in a negative relationship between butter prices and the Class III 
price – a 10-cent per pound increase in the price of butter reduced the Class III price by 4 
cents per hundredweight.  This anomaly was exacerbated by high butter prices relative to 
                                                 
2 For more information on the nature and effects of order reform to date, see Order Reform and Reforming Order 
Reform, Marketing and Policy Briefing Paper No. 71, December 2000.  The paper can be obtained from the 
University of Wisconsin website, Understanding Dairy Markets at http://www.aae.wisc.edu/future. 
 
M&P  #73           Page  2  of  8 cheese prices in 2000, forcing down the Class III price relative to the Class IV price and 
causing the advanced Class IV skim value to consistently serve as the Class I mover.  The 
Class III price was severely depressed in 2000, but the relatively high Class IV price resulted 
in a major increase in the Class I – Class III price difference. 
 
In December 2000, USDA issued a tentative final rule based on the hearing and subsequent 
briefs.  Some product yield assumptions and make allowances were modified in the 
amendments.  But the biggest changes related to the adoption of a new Class III butterfat price 
derived from a formula linked to the value of butterfat in cheese.  The protein formula was 
also altered to value protein in cheese independent of butterfat in cheese.  A pooling 
mechanism was defined to accommodate separate butterfat prices for Class III and IV in 
determining producer butterfat value.  And the “higher of” Class I mover provision was 
modified to use the higher of Class IIII or Class IV prices at 3.5 percent butterfat rather than 
skim milk prices.  Whichever Class price was highest would, in turn, dictate the applicable 
Class I skim milk and butterfat prices. 
 
Defining separate butterfat classes solved the problem of the Class III price being negatively 
related to butter prices.  But it created many new potential problems.  Diverse producer and 
processor groups from every region coalesced to repudiate the change in a harmonious 
manner that has seldom, if ever, been observed in the dairy industry. 
 
Even though the final rule was approved by a producer referendum and published in the 
Federal Register on December 28, the separate Class III-Class IV butterfat provision never 
went into effect.  The January 2001 advanced prices were announced on December 22, 2000.  
Perhaps fortunately, the advanced Class IV price exceeded the advanced Class III price, so 
Class I skim and butterfat values for January 2001 were determined in the same manner as 
before the December final rule.  Before the monthly January prices could be announced on 
February 2, a federal District court enjoined USDA from using separate butterfat classes.  
USDA was required to revert to a single butterfat price for Class III and Class IV. 
 
 
The Newest Reforms 
 
The October 19, 2002 recommended decision addresses the injunction and makes a few other 
changes from the December 2000 final rule.  First, the other changes: 
 
The make allowance in the Class III Other Solids formula was increased from $0.14 to 
$0.159.   
 
“Old” formula:  Other Solids Price = (NASS Dry Whey Price – 0.14)/0.968 
 
“New” formula:  Other Solids Price = (NASS Dry Whey Price – 0.159)/0.968 
 
This change was in response to witnesses who argued that the manufacturing 
allowance for dry whey should be higher than for nonfat dry milk because byproduct 
values are less.  The impact of this change is an other solids price that will be about 2 
M&P  #73           Page  3  of  8 cents per pound lower.  This equates to approximately 12 cents per hundredweight of 
milk. 
 
The lower bound of zero on the Class III other solids price was eliminated.  
Previously, the other solids price was “snubbed” at zero – if the other solids formula 
yielded a price less than zero, the value, zero, was used in calculating the Class III 
price and producer other solids value.  USDA was apparently persuaded by cheese 
industry witnesses’ comments that low whey values impact negatively on plants 
bottom line, and should be reflected in component values.   
 
A negative other solids price would occur at a dry whey price of less than 15.9 cents 
per pound (the whey make allowance).  Based on the recent trading range for dry 
whey, the probability of this occurring is slim.  The NASS weekly whey price has 
exceeded 15.9 cents per pound every week since it first reported in September 1998. 
 
Move three high-fat products (frozen cream, plastic cream, and anhydrous milk fat) 
back from Class IV to Class III.  These products were reclassified with the separation 
of Class III and Class IV butterfat.  Since there is no separation in the new rules, there 
is no longer a need to reclassify.  
 
Eliminate butterfat pooling.  This is another “conforming change” that undoes a 
previous change necessitated by the separate butterfat classes. 
 
 
The primary change in the October 19 proposed rule is in the Class III protein formula.  The 
formula that has been used since January 2001 is: 
 
 
Old Protein Price/Lb. =   (NASS Cheese Price – 0.165) * 1.405 
 
     +  (((NASS Cheese Price – 0.165) * 1.582) – BF Price) * 1.28 
 
 
The first expression represents the value of protein in cheese.  The second expression 
represents the value of butterfat in cheese net of the value of butterfat in butter.  The proposed 
modification is to the net value of butterfat in cheese: 
 
 
New Protein Price/Lb. =   (NASS Cheese Price – 0.165) * 1.405 
 
    + (((NASS Cheese Price – 0.165) * 1.582) – 0.9*BF Price) * 1.17 
 
 
The change may appear trivial – the butterfat price is adjusted by .9 and the multiplier is 
reduced by 0.11.  However, the effects are substantial. 
 
M&P  #73           Page  4  of  8 First, USDA finally did address the problem of butter prices negatively affecting the Class III 
price.  This can be demonstrated mathematically.  The Class III price is defined as 0.965 times 
the Class III skim milk price plus 3.5 times the butterfat price.  The Class III skim milk price 
is defined as 3.1 times the protein price plus 5.9 times the other solids price.  The other solids 
price is related exclusively to the dry whey price.  So in the old protein formula, the Class III 
price changed with the butterfat price as follows: 
 
-0.965*3.1*1.28*(Butterfat price) + 3.5*(Butterfat price) = -0.329*(Butterfat price). 
 
Dividing through by the .82 butterfat yield factor, this is equivalent to a four-cent per 
hundredweight decrease for a 10 cents per pound increase in butter prices.  With the new 
protein formula, the Class III price change is: 
 
-0.965*3.1*1.17*0.9*(Butterfat price) + 3.5*(Butterfat price) = +0.350*(Butterfat price). 
 
This indicates the Class III price would increase by 4.3 cents with a 10 cents per pound 
increase in the butter price. 
 
Second, and more important, the revision in the protein price formula increases the protein 
price for any given level of cheese prices.  Comparing the protein price calculated using the 
new formula with the reported protein price between January 2000 and September 2001, the 
new formula yields a 19.15-cent per pound higher price.  The equivalent increase in the Class 
III price is about 57 cents per hundredweight.  Combined with the lower other solids price, the 
net effect on the Class III price from the proposed rule is 45 cents per hundredweight.  In 
other words, had the new formulas been in effect since January 2000, Class III prices would 
have averaged 45 cents per hundredweight higher. 
 
As suggested by the figure below, the Class IIII price increases attributable to the new protein 
formula are largest when butter prices are high.  When butter prices were above $1.60 per 
pound, the new formula generated Class III prices more than 60 cents per hundredweight 
higher than actual Class III prices 
 
The new protein price formula makes it somewhat less likely that the Class IV price will 
consistently serve as the mover of Class I prices, particularly given the butter-powder “tilt” 
implemented by USDA in April 2001.  The chart below shows actual advanced Class III and 
Class IV prices since inception of the “higher of” mover of Class I in January 2000.  Also 
shown are the advanced Class III price using the new formulas for protein and other solids 
and the advanced Class IV price at $.90 per pound, the current CCC purchase price for nonfat 
dry milk.  Note that with the new protein formula, Class III would have been the mover in 
only one additional month (July 2001).  However, with nonfat dry milk at its new support 
level, Class III would have been the mover in five additional months. 
 
M&P  #73           Page  5  of  8 Monthly Class III Prices
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Jan '00 Apr Jul Oct Jan '01 Apr Jul Oct
C
l
a
s
s
 
I
I
I
 
P
r
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,
$
/
C
w
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0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
M
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$
/
C
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New Formulas
Actual
Difference (Right Scale)
Average Difference (Jan '00 
through Sep '01) is 45 cents 
 
Advanced Skim Prices
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
Jan '00
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan '01
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
$
.
C
w
t
.
New Formulas - Class II
Actual Class III
Actual Class IV
Class IV with NDM @ $.90
 
M&P  #73           Page  6  of  8  
 
 
Since nonfat dry milk and whey prices are comparatively stable, whether Class III or Class IV 
serves as the Class I mover depends mainly on the relative prices of Grade AA butter and 
Cheddar cheese as reported by NASS.  The chart below demonstrates this relationship with 
nonfat dry milk prices fixed at $0.95 per pound and dry whey prices fixed at $0.25 per pound 
(both prices at current levels).   
Relationship of Class I Mover to Butter andCheese Prices
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
0
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8
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NASS 2-Week Grade A Butter
N
A
S
S
 
2
-
W
e
e
k
 
C
h
e
d
d
a
r
  Class III Mover
  Class IV Mover NDM @ $0.95; Dry Whey @ $0.25
The chart can be interpreted as follows: With the assumed NDM and dry whey prices, the 
combination of butter and cheese prices will determine whether the advanced Class III or 
Class IV price is the Class I mover.  For example, at a NASS two-week cheese price of $1.50, 
the NASS two-week Grade AA butter price would have to exceed $1.80 per pound for Class 
IV to be the Class I mover.  With butter at $1.20, the cheese price would have to be higher 
than about $1.27 for Class III to be the mover.   
 
The equation embodied within the chart more specifically identifies the critical cheese price 
(cheese price above which Class III will be the Class I mover) as related to butter, nonfat dry 
milk, and whey prices: 
 
C = 0.0908 + 0.3944B + (9* NDM – 6.095*W)/10.0934 
 
Where C is the advanced NASS cheddar cheese price, B is the butter price, NDM is the nonfat 
dry milk price, and W is the dry whey price. 
 
M&P  #73           Page  7  of  8 This equation indicates that with dry whey at 25 cents per pound and other commodities at 
CCC support levels (cheese: $1.1314, butter: $.8548, and nonfat dry milk: $0.90), Class III 
will be the Class I mover.  That is, the CCC purchase price for cheese is higher than the 
calculated critical cheese price of $1.08 per pound. 
 
 
Summary Comments 
 
The newest proposed rule represents an evolving improvement over the initial federal order 
reforms implemented on January 1, 2000, the subsequent amendments implemented a year 
later, and the pricing rules that became effective after the January 2001 injunction.  USDA 
found a much better way than using separate butterfat prices to prevent high butter prices from 
lowering Class III milk values.  And the procedure that USDA adopted has the added benefit 
of raising Class III skim values.  In our judgment, the proposed protein price formula more 
appropriately values the value of protein and butterfat in cheese and provides better signals to 
producers. 
 
The revision in the Class III pricing formula along with the unrelated reduction in the CCC 
purchase price for nonfat dry milk increases the likelihood that Class III will move Class I.  
However, the recent trading ranges for butter and cheddar cheese strongly suggest that Class 
IV will usually serve as the Class I mover, even if nonfat dry milk price reach support.  This 
suggestion is confirmed by futures prices through September 2002, which show Class IV 
contracts trading at $0.60-$1.20 per hundredweight above Class III.   
 
“Higher of” pricing does not make good economic sense.  It has become abundantly clear 
from nearly two years of experience that the dairy price support program will continue to floor 
Class I prices through the CCC purchase price for nonfat dry milk.  And the Class III skim 
price continues to be strongly negatively affected by the butter price.  This raises the specter 
of maintaining Class IV as the mover by keeping butter prices high enough to offset the 
positive effect of rising cheese prices on Class III skim values. 
 
Expanding cheese use means an increasing proportion of the U.S. milk supply moving 
through cheese plants.  It is unreasonable to decouple fluid milk prices from competitive 
market forces driving the largest segment of the dairy industry.   
 
USDA refused to notice a proposal to use a weighted average of Class III and Class IV prices 
as a Class I mover.  The proposal notes that, “The hearing record supports the continued 
relationships between the Class IV and Class II prices and between the higher of the 
manufacturing class prices and the Class I price.”  It is difficult for us to understand what in 
the hearing record supports using Class IV to consistently move Class I.  In 2000, Class IV 
utilization represented less than 8 percent of total federal order deliveries; Class III use was 43 
percent.  In 2000, the CCC purchased 693 million pounds of nonfat dry milk, 48 percent of 
total production.  CCC purchases of cheese in 2000 were 28 million pounds, 0.3 percent of 
total cheese production. 
M&P  #73           Page  8  of  8 

Federal Milk Marketing Order Reform (Continued)

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