Assessment of the Cod Stock in NAFO Division 3M

Abstract

An assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M was conducted using a Bayesian SCAA (statistical catch-at-age) model. The STACFIS catch estimates and the Flemish Cap survey indices were used to fit the model. Blim, defined as the SSB of 2007, was estimated at 15 408 t (median). Results indicate a general increase in SSB since 2005 to the highest value in 2017, decreasing sharply since then. SSB has been above Blim since 2008. Between 2013 and 2018 recruitment was at very low levels; the 2016 and 2018 values were among the lowest of the series; as a consequence, 3-year projections indicate that total biomass will decrease during the projected years, while the SSB could increase under some scenarios in the final projected year. Depending on the projected scenario, probability of SSB being below Blim in 2023 and 2024 is high (≥12%) or very low (≤5%). An increase in recruitment occurred in 2019 and 2020, reaching the 2008 level.Versión del editor