Assessing the short and medium term response of monetary shocks in Argentina

Abstract

Monetary shocks generated by a monetary authority financing fiscal deficits cause a number of impacts on various economic variables, particularly on exchange and inflation rate. And while inflation is not an aspect which constitutes a serious concern in the world, it really is in Argentina, primarily from 2006 when the country returned to experiencing high rates of price changes. This was what led us to find the determinants of inflation in the long run (see Descalzi and Neder, 2015). Assessing the assumptions related to a cash-in-advance model for a small open economy with seigniorage and following McCandless (2008), we found a long run relationship between inflation, money issuing, nominal exchange rate and fiscal deficit, meaning that inflation, nominal exchange rate and the government imbalances are driven by the same trend. In this paper, being more interested in short run, we deepen the understanding on the inflationary process in Argentina during the period Q1 2004- Q2 2015 by adjusting the impulse response functions to evaluate the time along which the inflation rate attains its steady-state level after a monetary shock occurs. We use quarterly data.Este trabajo analiza el comportamiento de una economía pequeña y abierta tomando como base un modelo "cash-In-Advance" con Señoreaje. La hipótesis planteada es que las autoridades económicas tienden a financiar déficits fiscales mediante la emisión de dinero, lo que genera inflación y una caída del tipo de cambio real. Utilizando datos trimestrales para el período 2004-2015 calculamos las funciones impulso-respuesta para evaluar el número de períodos que tardan las principales variables económicas alcanzar su nuevo nivel de estado estacionario.https://aaep.org.ar/anales/works/works2016/descalzi.pdfFil: Descalzi, Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Neder, Ángel Enrique. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

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