Persistence in Airline Accidents

Abstract

This paper analyses airline accident data from 1927-2006, through fractional integration. It is shown that airline accidents are persistent and (fractionally) cointegrated with airline traffic. There exists a negative relation between air accidents and airline traffic, with the effect of the shocks to that relationship disappearing in the long run. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events.Accidents; airline; Time series; Persistence; Long memory; Cointegration.