The Determinants of Soccer Player Substitutions: a Survival Analysis of the Spanish Soccer League

Abstract

This paper analyzes the pattern of player substitutions during a soccer match, using data from the First Division (Primera División) of the Spanish National Soccer League in the 2004-2005 season. To do so, an inverse Gaussian hazard model is adopted to analyze the first substitutions of each team that take place at half-time and in the second half of matches. The results show that the most important factor is the score as it stands prior to the time of the player substitution. Furthermore, defensive substitutions are made later in the match than offensive substitutions. We also find some evidence that the home team makes more substitutions than the visiting team in the halftime interval.hazard model; soccer substitutions; strategy.