Never change a winning team: An analysis of hazard rates in the NBA

Abstract

We estimate Cox models to determine proportional hazard rates in professional basketball, concerning leaving the league or changing the team by using a database covering all players of the NBA in the 90s. We predict and confirm that league-hazards depend on a players performance. A teamswitch, however, cannot depend on low performance itself because there has to be a team willing to accept the (new) player. Accordingly we find that a good scoring performance and an intense use of a player reduces the probability of a team-switch, whereas high salaries or non-scoring performance do not. --