Forecasting inflation and its determinants

Abstract

VAR modeling in inflation forecasting has been widely used, and rather successful, even if there have been several critiques of its exactness or accuracy. This paper is structured into two sections. The first one accomplishes a general presentation of VAR modeling in forecasting inflation, and the second is focused on the results of this econometric approach for inflation in Romania. Even if we considered methodologies containing inflation measured using CPI, CORE1 and CORE2, testing will only be performed for the CPI Inflation. Data used in mainly provided by statistics issued by the Romanian National Bank, and computing is accomplished using Mathematica 5.0.inflation, VAR models, forecast, Romania