Love, John M.

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Research Papers in Economics

Agricultural  Outlook  Forum      Presented:  February  17,  2006 
 
 
SUGAR OUTLOOK 
 
John M. Love 
 Sugar, Specialty Crops, and Lumber Analyst,  
World Board, USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2006                                        Presented:  Friday, February 17, 2006 
 
2006/07 U.S. SUGAR SUPPLY AND USE
1
 
John M. Love 
USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board 
 
Basis for projecting 2006/07 supply and demand: 
 
•  Beginning stocks are taken from 2005/06 ending stocks in the February 2006 World Agricultural 
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. 
 
•  Beet sugar production is taken from processor projections, compiled by the Farm Service 
Agency.  Cane sugar is based on 2005/06 acreage and yield, adjusted for trends and residual 
hurricane damage from 2005/06. 
 
•  Tariff rate quota (TRQ) imports are assumed to total the minimum under World Trade 
Organization commitments and other current trade agreements.  Other program imports are 
projected based on trends.  Non-program imports are projected from trends (molasses and syrups) 
and other analyses (high-tier imports from Mexico).     
 
•  Exports and domestic use are projected from trends and macroeconomic factors affecting overall 
food demand. 
 
Key results for 2006/07: 
 
•  Compared with a year earlier, beginning stocks increase due to higher imports in 2005/06. 
 
•  Production of beet sugar increases in response to anticipated prices, which were above average 
during first-half in 2005/06.  Cane sugar production increases, but remains hampered by residual 
impacts from multiple years of poor growing conditions. 
 
•  Imports are projected to total 1.78 million short tons, raw value, including 100,000 tons of high-
tier sugar imports from Mexico. 
 
•  Total use increases 50,000 tons, as higher domestic consumption more than offsets lower exports. 
 
•  Ending stocks total 1.3 million tons, or 12.5 percent of use. 
                                                       
1Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.  
 
 
2006 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 
February 17, 2006 
                   
                         U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ 
==  ====================================================================
                        :           :       2005/06      :  2006/07 
        Item              : 2004/05   :====================:============
                        :           : January   February : Projection 
======  ================================================================
     1,000 short tons, raw value                          :      
    :  
Beginning stocks        :   1,897       1,347     1,347       1,661 
Production 2/           :   7,877       7,593     7,589       8,280 
  Beet sugar            :   4,611       4,435     4,458       4,750 
  Cane sugar            :   3,266       3,158     3,131       3,530 
   Florida              :   1,693       1,455     1,428       1,800 
   Hawaii               :     258         260       260         250 
   Louisiana            :   1,157       1,263     1,263       1,300 
   Texas                :     158         180       180         180 
Imports                 :   2,096       2,770     3,090       1,776 
  TRQ 3/                :   1,404       2,140     2,590       1,356 
  Other program 4/      :     500         325       325         245 
  Other 5/              :     192         305       175         175 
 11,870      11,710    12,026      11,717     Total supply         : 
                        : 
Exports                 :     259         175       175         100 
Deliveries              :  10,215      10,215    10,190      10,315 
  Food                  :  10,046      10,050    10,050      10,150 
  Other 6/              :     169         165       140         165 
Miscellaneous 7/        :      49           0         0           0 
     Use, total         :  10,523      10,390    10,365      10,415 
Ending stocks           :   1,347       1,320     1,661       1,302                       
: 
Stocks to use ratio     :    12.8        12.7      16.0        12.5 
=====  =================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1.  Historical data are from FSA,  
"Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census 
 of   Bureau).  2/ Projections for 2006/07 based on processor projections
beet sugar production compiled by the Farm Service Agency and cane 
sugar output estimated by Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee  
for sugar. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with  
late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal  
  year in which they actually arrived.  The 2006/07 TRQ assumes minimum 
imports under current trade agreements with shortfall at 40,000 tons. 
s.  4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol program
5/ Includes high-tier and other.  6/ Transfers to sugar-containing  
products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual 
statistical discrepancies. 
 

Sugar Outlook

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