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AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASPECTS OF PETROLEUM AND MILITARY SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF
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Abstract
Geologic estimates of remaining global petroleum resources place about 50% in the Persian Gulf. Production costs are estimated at 5perbarrelthere,and15 per barrel in the North Sea and Alaska. Using mathematical methods derived from depletion theory is utilized to explain the 15β20 per barrel price band that existed from 1986 to 1999. New economic forces have displaced this previously stable pattern; a new price range of 22βto28 may be emerging. International trade in petroleum and conventional weapons are analyzed with econometric methods; the occurrence of nuclear weapons capability in the Persian Gulf region is explored.International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,