Ankara : The Department of Economics, Bilkent Univ., 2004.Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2004.Includes bibliographical references leaves 36-40.The increased frequency of financial crises in the last two decades led to a
surge of interest in search for common elements of those crises and to the creation of
early warning systems as instruments to avoid currency crises by predicting the
timing of the crises. Along with the early warning systems, observation of increased
frequency of crisis called forth deeper research of costs of crisis. This study
combines both areas of research in it by employing a new econometric approach in
assessing costs of crises. The study utilizes an early warning system in order to
measure the impact of the predicted probability of crisis on the economy. Later on,
the predicted probabilities of crises obtained are employed in a country-specific
VAR system so as to come up with measures of consequences of currency crises.
The study predicts crises for a sample of 15 emerging market economies over the
period of 1980-2000. The costs of crises analysis for Latin American countries
reveals that crises experienced during 1980-2000 caused significant amount of
reduction in growth rates of output of those countries. Furthermore, the results
suggest that the slowdown in economic activity lasts no more than two years and
then the economy recovers.Ersal, EylemM.S
