Cain, Jarvis L.

English

Research Papers in Economics

What's for Dinner in the USA  - 2025 AD?
Jarvis L. Cain
Over the  past  thirty  years  or  so,  we  have  Life-Style -USA
been  involved  in studying,  writing  and  speaking
about various  parts of the United  States Food In-  As  a  society,  our  lives  are  filled  with  high
dustry  System-its  growth  and  development,  its  stress.  We  are  basically  sedentary,  with  low  or
efficiency and productivity,  its structure,  its man-  improper  levels of exercise.  We smoke,  drink al-
agement, and most of all its future. This paper will  cohol,  and  take  drugs  - legal  and  illegal.  We
focus  upon  what  goes  through  this  system.  We  have  high  levels  of heart  disease,  obesity,  high
will  be talking  mainly  about  the  food  products,  blood  pressure,  diabetes  and  many  assorted  life-
services and perceptions that might be, would be,  style and diet-related problems.
should be moving through the system to meet the  We  are  a  nation  of "snackers,"  whose  diet
changing nutritional needs of our citizens  in 2025  contains too much fat, salt, cholesterol  and sweet-
AD.  eners; but it's "okay" if it tastes good. We bolt our
food  and  wonder  why  we  have  digestive  prob-
Nutrient Delivery  System - 1997  lems.
With  a few exceptions, we have  a low  level
Back in the early 1970s, we developed a con-  of knowledge of nutrition and have essentially lost
cept,  "Nutrient  Delivery  System,"'  to  help  us  our  ability  to  prepare  meals  from  scratch.  For
study  food  distribution  systems  and  their  devel-  better  or worse,  we find  ourselves  in a  situation
opment  over  time.  Our  current  "NDS"  is  well  where we cannot or will not take more than a pas-
documented  statistically  by  the  USDA's  Tony  sive role in preparing our own meals.
Gallo2, The Food Institute3, and others.  In  addition  to  the  current  generation,  we
We would characterize  this system as part of  seem  to have  passed  a predisposition to  many  of
a  worldwide network;  complex;  multilevel;  high-  our  diet  and  exercise  problems  to  our  children.
tech  (production,  processing,  distribution  and  in-  None of  this should come as a surprise.
formation systems);  concentrated,  with  increasing  The  pertinent  question  for  our  society  is:
market  power;  relatively  profitable;  constantly  What  is  the  likelihood  of  significant  positive
changing  internally  to  increase  efficiency  and  changes  in our basic life-style by 2025 AD? Short
productivity  and externally  to increase  the  avail-  of monumental disaster, the odds are slim to none.
ability of meals, any time  and any place.  Industry  So,  without change,  our  future  nutrient  delivery
initiatives  such  as  "ECR"  and  "EFR"  and  those  system will be delivering  food and  food products
that  follow  will  proceed  to  fine-tune  the  system  into a similar basic life-style as today's.
efficiency-wise.  We must realize  that life-style has  a big  im-
We  have  a  good  system  that  works  pretty  pact on  diet, and  it  is  impossible  to  separate  the
well. That will  continue  to get better, at the mar-  two,  even  in  this  paper.  In order to  change  diet,
gin,  doing  its job  of  delivering  food  and  food  life-style must be changed as well.
products to  our citizens.  This  is  not the  issue  of
this particular paper.  Food, Food Products, Services and Perceptions
In terms  of the ingredients  and technologies
available to the food industry  system from  which
to  deliver the food  and food  products to our citi-
The  author  is Professor of Agricultural  and  Resource  Eco-  zens  in  2025  AD,  one  sees  little  in  terms  of
nomics, University of Maryland,  College Park.  monumental  change.  While  there  is  always  the
'"Nutrient  Delivery  System - A  Human  Feeding  Concept  possibility  of breakthroughs  anywhere  along  the
for 2000 AD and Beyond," J.L. Cain, Journal  of Food Distri-  system, we will  be  essentially  dealing with  what
bution Research, Vol. IV, No. 3, September,  1973.
2 "The Food Marketing System  in 1995," Anthony E. Gallo,  we already have, some twenty-eght years hence.
AIB No. 731  USDA, December  1996.
3  Food Retailing Review - 1996, The Food Institute,  1996.Cain, Jar.is  What'sfor Dinner in the USA-  2025 AD?  19
What  can  change  rapidly  is  the amount and  What  we  propose  to  do  next  is (1)  look  at
kind of services  added to  the basic food  ingredi-  three  possible  scenarios  of  Nutrient  Delivery
ents  somewhere  within  the  system.  This  is  how  Systems  for  2025  AD;  (2)  identify  the  change
and  to  what  degree  we  prepare  and process  our  agent  roles  for the  major  players  in  the  system;
future food products. Perceptions  of food and food  and (3) close with a section  on "Where  do we go
products can be changed dramatically over time.  from here?"
Challenge  Nutrient  Delivery  System  - 2025  AD  (Three
Scenarios)
The challenges here are two fold:
First,  is  to  change the  consumption  patterns  1. "Status Quo" - no significant change
of 300  million  Americans  from  the  current  less  n 
This is  an easy  one to write. All you have to healthy to  a more healthy diet.  This indeed could  is  a sna  of te ste  a  it i  toay i.,n  ~  ~  .•  ~~~  .- n  ~  tdo  is take a snapshot of the system as it is today; be monumental. One generation  will probably not  be monumental.  One generation  will probay nt  allow  for a  few  cosmetic  changes  at the margin; be  enough  time  to  accomplish  all  that  must  be be  enough  time  to  accomplish  all  that  must  b  e  and there  we have  it. Those  individuals  with  the done.  As  we  should  have  learned  by now,  atti- done.  As  we  should  have  learned  by  now,  atti-  short  range-bottom  line  mentality  would  love  it. tudes change far more slowly than technologies.  i 
c  3-ven  te c  s  in cn  They  could  plow  merrily  along  making  money Second,  given  the  changes  in  consumption ond, given  t  cn  in  cn  io  and  enjoying  life-while  the  current  consumer's patterns  (however long they take), the food indus-  h  b  s  i  n ..  'i  i  .t  - health  slowly  but  steadily  deteriorates.  The  next try system will have to change its mix of products,  generation,  with  the burger,  fries  and  soda men- services  and  perceptions  to  meet  and  anticipate services  and  perceptions  to  meet  and  anticipate  tality, can do little but blindly follow along the fat, their consumer needs. theiri,  consumr  ne e.  salt, sweet trail to a similar fate. This  is  sort  of a  "chicken  and  egg" proposi-
tion.  Given the high degree of dependency of to-  . "Ideal D" 
2. "Ideal Diet" Syndrome day's  consumers  upon  the  food  industry  to
provide an  array of choices, it is not just a simple  At the other end of the dietary spectrum,  one
proposition  of consumers  saying  (en  mass)  we  can  easily  visualize  a  situation  where  each  con-
want xyz and the food industry responds. The real  suming  unit  (individual  or  family)  can  have  an
situation  is much  more  of a  guessing  game.  The  ideal  menu  (diet-wise)  presented  to  them  each
food industry tries as best it can to interpret "what  morning on their PC  screen.  With the pressing of
consumers  want" and then  provide  them  for sale  a  key,  they  can  activate  the  Nutrient  Delivery
in the market place. However,  due to the increas-  System,  which  will  deliver the  desired  meals  (to
ing  dependency  of consumers  on the  industry to  whatever point  desired) and  deduct the cost from
provide "ready-to-eat"  meals for their approval,  a  the appropriate bank account electronically.  Those
lot  of the  responsibility  flows  back  through  the  people,  in transit  or with  no  fixed  address,  may
system to various parts of the industry. Thus, there  present  themselves to  the  local  "feeding  station"
is a shared and rather ill defined responsibility for  where  their  dietary  needs  can  be  analyzed  elec-
determination  of the  mix of goods  and  services  tronically and satisfied on the spot. Theoretically,
available at any point in time.  all  of our citizens  would  have  their specific  die-
It has been said by some that what consumers  tary  needs  met  each  day.  For those  who  might
really  want  is  for  the  food  industry  to  provide  wonder  about  group  meal  events,  we  all  would
them  with  a  package  of "Total  Nutrition  Man-  have  smart  cards  with  our  specific  dietary  pa-
agement"  so that they could be  assured of proper  rameters  imprinted upon them and could order our
nutrition  for themselves  and their  families  (for a  meals  on site or in advance over the network.
price) and go merrily  along with their busy lives.  This may all sound well and good in a dietary
If this is true, it places an awesome responsibility  sense.  However,  in  a  free  society,  many  of us
upon  the  food  industry  in  general  and  specific  would  chafe under such rigid control of our food
firms and groups in particular.  intake;  in  spite of the fact that "it's good  for us."
So the challenge  boils  down to changing  di-  This next generation will surely involve electronic
ets and changing the food  system to meet the new  information  systems to a much larger degree  than
dietary requirements in one order or another.  today.  But  to  get  to  a  position  of total  dietary
control is quite a stretch.20  February  1998  Journal  of  Food  Distribution  Research
3. Improved Diet  profits of all types). Diet and health  needs to  get
Somewhere  between these two extremes  is a  high up on the agenda of these organizations. Somewhere  between these two extremes  is a
point  where  the  food  industry-consumer  partner- ..  . ,  .3.  Food Industry ship will  deliver a  diet which has  a  minimum  of
the "bad things"  of today's offerings and a maxi-  Both  individual  firms and  the trade  associa-
mum  of the  "good  things"  that  we  all  require.  tions that represent them  must put diet and health
Consumers  will want to minimize  the excess  fat,  high upon their agendas  as well. The firms will be
salt,  cholesterol  and sweeteners;  but still maintain  implementing  the specific  changes  in  the product
the taste and fun of the desired diet. Specific defi-  mix  offerings  and  the  trade  associations  will  be
nition  of the  content of the  "Improved  diet" will  paving the way to get the job done.
have to be worked out by all parties involved. The
general  concept is presented  as a mid-point in the  4. Government - At All Levels
array of possible  scenarios. The food industry will  Support  of  educational  efforts  in  diet  and
somehow  find  a  way to  adjust their  product  of-  health as well as implementing regulatory changes
ferings to meet these needs and still make  an  ac-  to accommodate the new product offerings  can be
ceptable profit in the bargain. In  fact,  parts of the  governments'  role  in the process.  They  can  also
food industry have been doing just that. Hopefully  work with  other institutions  to help  get the prod-
it  will  continue  to  expand  to  the  total  industry  uct changes completed  in the first place.
system.
5. Academic Community Scenanrio Summary
There  are three  major  roles  to  be  played  in
In  reality,  an  infinite  number  of  scenarios In  reality,  an  infinite  number  of  'scenarios  this part of the arena. First is research  to improve
could be written here. Those that are presented are  diet  and  health  of  our  citizens.  Second  is  the
examples  of what  could  happen  at  a  future  date  training  of educators  from  kindergarten  through
under  widely  varying  sets  of conditions.  That  is  university. We once had programs  variously titled
the essence of scenario writing.  "Home  Economics"  in  our  major  universities.
Most of the dietary  work  has  been  eliminated  or Change Agent Roles  - To Get to 2025 AD replaced  by  other  efforts.  Third  is  the  adult  edu-
cation area. Extension once had  an  extensive net-
In  order  to  get the  desired  changes  imple-  work of"Home Economists"  whose  purview was
mented  in this  situation  there  are  five  groups  of  wk of  H  e Eonomt  whose  p  iew ws diet  and  health  among  other things.  These  too
players that will  have roles. These  will be  briefly  hae  een allod to d  e ad de on te  have been allowed to dwindle and die on the vine.
discussed in turn.
Who Will Pay?
1. Individual Citizens
People must understand the need for specific  It  is  very  difficult  to  put  a  value  on  how
dietary changes, support these changes, be willing  much improved  diet  is worth to the well being of
to make demands for change from the food indus-  our citizenry.  Over the long run, a major source  of
try and from the many and varied institutions that  savings  to society  could  be  in  decreased  costs  of
impact  upon the food  supply.  A sizeable  void  in  Medicaid and Medicare  plus the private insurance
education  relative  to diet  and health  needs  to  be  companies.  If  better  diets  truly  lower  the  inci-
filled  at  all  levels  (grade  school  through  college  dences of all the maladies  that are  claimed, then
level).  Specialization is needed in the area of adult  the savings should be very sizeable, indeed.
education  (young  adults  through  seniors).  All  A  short  aside  might  be  instructional  here.
types of media must be used (special  emphasis on  Twenty-five  years ago, if you seriously  advocated
electronic media).  that the tobacco  companies  would be  hauled  into
court and agree to pay massive sums of money to
2. Society in General  cover  some  of their  consumer's  medical  costs;
you would have been laughed off the planet. Con-
We  get  things  done  through  the  myriad  of  sider  the  possibility  twenty-five  years  hence,  of
institutions  in  our  life  (schools,  churches,  non-  the major food companies being hauled  into courtCain,  Jarvis  What 'sfor Dinner in the USA - 2025 AD?  21
to  face the  consequences  of the  "bad  diets"  they  that  are  needed to  get the ball  rolling.  One,  the
imposed  upon  their  customers,  "Outrageous,"  conditions  have to  be  bad enough  that  a  signifi-
maybe. But, in our "sue crazy" society,  it is possi-  cant  proportion  of the  population  and the  power
ble.  structure is dissatisfied  and is willing to do  some-
thing about it. The line that must be crossed in this
Where Do We Go From Here?  situation  is  very  elusive.  The  second  has  to  do
with leadership. Who is willing to tackle this issue
Given that there are serious dietary problems  and  devote the time and energy necessary to see it
in  this  country  which  command  significant  through to completion?
changes  in the  product mix  being  offered  by the  When  we find the  answers  to  both of these
food  industry  system,  there  are  two  ingredients  questions, work can proceed on this project.

WHAT'S FOR DINNER IN THE USA - 2025 AD?

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Research Papers in Economics