Begon, Michael

Costa, Federica

Khalil, Hussein

Minter, Amanda

English

OA OpenAgrar repository

6th International Conference of Rodent Biology and Management & 16th Rodens et Spatium, 2018, Potsdam  Julius-Kühn-Archiv, 459, 2018 135 Workshop Rodent-Borne Diseases Optimal control model for rodent-borne leptospirosis in Salvador, Brazil Hussein Khalil1, Amanda Minter2, Federica Costa3, Michael Begon1             1University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK, hussein.khalil@liverpool.ac.uk  2London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK 3Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil Within the next three decades, two million people worldwide will live in urban slums, making up around 70% of the urban population in poor countries. Slum communities face a myriad of political, economic, and health challenges, yet often lack sufficient resources or central (governmental) planning to address them. In low to medium income countries, infectious diseases of poverty are common, including globally distributed zoonoses such as leptospirosis, which impart their greatest burden on the urban poor. In Brazil alone, 12,000 people annually are infected with Leptospira, a zoonotic bacteria carried and shed in urban settings mainly by brown rats (Rattus norvegicus). Few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of interventions, such as application of rodenticide or habitat modification. Rodenticides temporarily reduce rodent abundance while habitat modification such as closing of sewers reduces both carrying capacity of rat populations and survival of Leptospira in the environment. Given the scarcity of resources and need for intervention, it is important to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different combinations of time-dependent intervention scenarios. We here present a mathematical model based on optimal control theory, using age-structured model for leptospire infection in a rat populations and parameters inferred from empirical studies in five slum communities in the city of Salvador, Brazil. An optimal control models optimizes time-dependent interventions through incorporating both the cost of an intervention and the cost of an infection. Our results suggest that habitat modification, despite being relatively more expensive; can reduce infection prevalence in rat populations. Continuous application of rodenticide reduces rat populations sufficiently to diminish human risk. The models presented here, using leptospirosis as a case study, can guide the optimal allocation of resources to reduce zoonotic risk.    Julius Kühn-InstitutBundesforschungsinstitut für Kulturpfl anzenJ u l i u s - K ü h n - A r c h i v6th International Conference of Rodent Biology and Management and16th Rodens et SpatiumPotsdam, Germany, 3-7 September 2018Book of AbstractsJens Jacob, Jana Eccard (Editors) J u l i u s - K ü h n - A r c h i vJulius Kühn-InstitutBundesforschungsinstitut für Kulturpfl anzen6th International Conference of Rodent Biology and Management and16th Rodens et SpatiumPotsdam, Germany, 3-7 September 2018Book of AbstractsJens Jacob, Jana Eccard (Editors) Bibliografische Information der Deutschen NationalbibliothekDie Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese PublikationIn der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie: detaillierte bibliografischeDaten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar.ISSN 1868-9892ISBN 978-3-95547-059-3DOI 10.5073/jka.2018.459.000Editors:Jens Jacob1 and Jana Eccard21Julius Kuehn Institute, Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants,  Institute for Plant Protection in Horticulture and Forests, Vertebrate Research,  Toppheideweg 88, 48161 Münster, Germany2University of Potsdam, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology,  Animal Ecology Group, Maulbeerallee 1,  14469 Potsdam, Germany Local Organizing Committee:Jana Eccard, University of Potsdam   Jens Jacob, Julius Kühn Institute, Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Münster Daniela Reil, Julius Kühn Institute, Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, MünsterChristiane Scheffler, University of PotsdamElke Seydewitz, University of PotsdamScientific organising committee:Emil Tkadlec (Czech Republic); Frauke Ecke (Sweden); Grant Singleton (Philippines): Heikki Henttonen (Finland); Jana Eccard (Germany); Jens Jacob (Germany); Lyn Hinds (Australia); Prince Kaleme (Congo); Xavier Lambin (UK); Zhibin Zhang (China)International Steering Committee Rodens et Spatium:Abraham Haim (Israel); Alexey Surov (Russia); Ana Maria Benedek (Romania); Boris Krasnov (Israel);  Emil Tkadlec (Czech Republic); Éric Le Boulengé (Belgium); Farida Khammar (Algeria);  František Sedláček (Czech Republic); Gert Olsson (Sweden); Grant Singleton (Australia);  Heikki Henttonen (Finland); Jan Zima (Czech Republic); Jean-François Cosson (France); Linas Balčiauskas (Lithuania); Maria da Luz Mathias (Portugal); Molly McDonough (USA); Mustafa Sözen (Turkey);  Nigel Yoccoz (Norway); Olga Osipova (Russia); Takuya Shimada (Japan); Victor Sánchez Cordero (Mexico); Xavier Lambin (United Kingdom); Yasmina Dahmani (Algeria)International Steering Committee  International Conference of Rodent Biology and Management:Andrea Byrom (New Zealand); Charley Krebs (Canada); Grant Singleton (Philippines); Jens Jacob (Germany); Jiqi Lu (China); Lyn Hinds (Australia); Nico Avenant (South Africa); Peter Banks (Australia);  Peter Brown (Australia); Regino Cavia (Argentina); Rhodes Makundi (Tanzania); Roger Pech (New Zealand); Steven Belmain (UK); Sudarmaji (Indonesia); Zhibin Zhang (China)Alle Beiträge im Julius-Kühn-Archiv sind unter einerCreative Commons - Namensnennung - Weitergabe unter gleichen Bedingungen -  4.0 Lizenz veröffentlicht. Printed in Germany by Arno Brynda GmbH, Berlin.

Optimal control model for rodent-borne leptospirosis in Salvador, Brazil

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Optimal control model for rodent-borne leptospirosis in Salvador, Brazil

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