Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration: A Case Study for Central America

Abstract

In early January 2003, the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua launched official negotiations for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), a treaty that would expand NAFTA-style trade barrier reductions to Central America. With deeper trade integration between Central America and the US, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles among Central America and the US. The aim of this paper is to assess the degree of business cycle synchronization between Central America and the US. This is not only relevant for a better understanding of the influence of important trading partners on the business cycle fluctuations in the domestic economy. It has also an important implication in terms of evaluating the costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination.