How to achieve the Kyoto Target in Belgium, modelling methodology and some results

Abstract

This paper discusses the methodology and some results to assess the means and costs of meeting the Kyoto target for Greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium. This target consists in reducing the emissions of Greenhouse gasses in 2008-2012 by 7.5% compared to the level of 1990. Here we assume that this target has to be met in Belgium and that no tradable permits or other flexible mechanisms can be used to achieve the required reduction in Belgium. This paper can therefore serve as an input into policy debates at the European level on flexible mechanisms and on coordination of Greenhouse policies. The second chapter concentrates on the methodological aspects of this study. We explain how we represent carbon emissions in the economy, what models we use, how we construct scenarios and what cost concepts are chosen. In the third chapter we present the Reference with its macro-economic and energy price assumptions. It is a detailed scenario for the future GHG emissions in Belgium that takes into account the policy measures already decided. The fourth chapter is devoted to the ‘Kyoto’ scenario. In this scenario the GHG emissions are reduced in function of their costs in order to achieve the 'Kyoto' target. The last chapter presents a few sensitivity studies.