Bonis,R. de

Calcagnini,G.

Hester,D.D.

English

Research Papers in Economics

                                            Table 1              
                     TRENDS IN THE USE OF TRANSACTIONS MEDIA - VOLUMES
                        ATMs/mil.    POS terms./     ATM cards/     Ann. ATM trans   Annual checks
                          residents     mil. residents    thous. resids.       per resident       written per res.    
              
                        1993    1997   1993    1997    1993  1997       1993   1997        1993      1997  
Belgium              279.    492.   5251.   8421.    836. 1116.          11.    16.       13.786     9.411
              
Canada               556.    649.   2142. 10945.    476.   581.          38.    53.        73.000   59.461
              
France                 325.    461.  9185.   9540.    372.    472.          13.    20.        85.076   83.911
              
Germany             308.    504.    345.   1981.    552.   1037.         NA    NA       11.501    8.870
              
Italy                    268.    443.   1360.   4891.    287.    426.           4.      7.        10.947   11.411
              
Japan                  936.   1115.    168.     155.   1769.  1945.          3.       5.         2.628     2.247
              
Netherlands         291.    409.   1600.   7692.      82.    162.         20.     33.       14.274     5.174
              
Sweden               256.    268.   3064.   7774.   1313.    691.         28.     35.        8.398     2.034
              
Switzerland         439.    678.   1433.   5852.     716.    978.           7.     11.        2.210     1.312
              
United Kingdom 328.    393.   4639.   8983.     888.   1271.         21.     30.      49.591   43.764
              
United States      367.    616.    600.    4853.   2059.   2628.         30.     41.    233.528  246.707
__________
  Source: Bank for International Settlements, 1998.1 Excludes PTT debits.
                                                                   Table 2               
                                  
TRENDS  IN  THE  USE OF TRANSACTIONS  MEDIA - VALUES  DEFLATED BY  GDP
                                                 (Annual flows x 1000/GDP)
                                ATM             POS            Checks     Debit & credit          Total
                          transactions   transactions       written    card transactions    transactions
                         1993    1997  1993   1997   1993    1997   1993   1997       1993      1997 
Belgium                63.     78.     47.     75.    1811.    1347.     53.     78.      41684.    46733.
               
Canada                 80.     93.       5.     52.   33543.  22383.   107.   189.      33951.    23055.
               
France                  47.     58.     72.     86.     2159.    1821.     72.     86.      46639.    41583.
               
Germany            NA      NA       2.       8.      1691.   1108.     15.     23.      73348.    70590.
               
Italy                     41.     66.       7.      24.     1400.    1311.    10.      24.     30407.    40413.
               
Japan                   38.     44.       0.       0.      6862.    3126.    NA     NA         NA        NA
               
Netherlands         96.    126.     12.      65.         53.       18.     12.     66.     36767.     43082.
              
Sweden              135.   143.     26.      48.        NA      NA      37.     73.       4212.       4374.
               
Switzerland
1         51.     59.       7.      28.       106.       53.     30.     55.     97695.   124686.
               
United Kingdom  95.    115.     NA      NA    2368.   2102.     81.    131.     43651.    50498.
               
United States       80.     92.        2.        6.   10546.   9593.     98.    152.     83452.    91280.
___________
   Source: Bank for International Settlements, 1998.                                                      Table 3                
                MEAN  VALUES  FOR  PROVINCES  WHERE  BANKS
     HAVE  A  PRESENCE
                     Branches   Deposits   Loans      ATMs   Employees  Accounts
                            
        1990         7.21          350         265           NA         117         11,430
                
        1991         8.01          382         304          5.70         118         12,148
                
        1992         8.65          396         342          7.12         119         12,563
                 
        1993         9.22          416         336          8.30         117         12,752 
                  
        1994         9.82          434         352          9.57         119         13,001
               
        1995       10.21          446         NA        10.54         116         13,178
               
       
        Note: Deposits and loans are expressed in miliardi (billions) of lire
          per bank per province; all others are expressed as integers per bank 
          per province. Loan data for 1995  are not shown because of a 
          discontinuity that resulted from merging data from long-term credit
          institutions with those of parent public sector banks.1 Data on population comes from Bank for International Settlements [1998] and from the
Bank of Italy’s Bollettino Statistico, March 1999.
Table 4
SAMPLE AND POPULATION OF ATMS IN ITALY:  1991  - 1998
(in  thousands  of  machines)
year population
1 unedited edited
      sample sample
1991       NA   11.04  10.36
1992       NA   13.41  12.94
1993     15.23    14.37              15.08
1994     18.67    18.06  17.39
1995     21.67    20.27  19.15
1996                24.22       NA    NA
1997     25.50      NA                           NA
1998     27.77      NA    NATable 5
     PROVINCE  RELATIONS  AND  THE  DEMAND  FOR  ATM  SERVICES
                (Dependent variable is ln of number of ATMs in a province)
                        1991  1995
Intercept -9.652** - 8.672**
            (1.344)           (0.937)
Ln of a province’s population in the year -1.361**  -0.792**
  (.137)    (.087)
Ln of province’s nominal GDP in the year   1.542**   1.202**
  (.215)    (.137)
Herfindahl index on distribution of branches    .208    -.591
       among sample banks   (.484)     (.369)
Ln of a province’s aggregate deposits in year    .882**     .599**
  (.136)    (.110)
Ln of number of deposit accounts in the year    -.064    -.064
  ( .107)    (.080)
Mean    4.0469   4.8061
Standard error of estimate      .3196      .2214
Multiple correlation coefficient    .927     .950
F - ratio 188.6**            284.0**
Number of observations   95   95
__________
Note: In this and subsequent tables, * implies that a null hypothesis is rejected at the .05 level and  
    ** implies that a null hypothesis is rejected at the .01 level in a two-tailed test. Standard errors   
    are in parentheses.Table 6
      BANK  RELATIONS  AND THE  PROVISION OF  ATM  SERVICES
 (dependent variable is the number of a bank’s ATMs at year end)
 naive model one  naive model two
   1991        1995                       1991         1995
Intercept              2.954        7.157*             -0.226          1.929
(2.104)      (3.424)  (1.878)       (3.575)
Previous year’s deposits in trillions      1.030       17.504**                 7.558**    10.566** 
        of lire              (1.504)      (1.357)                   (1.930)       (2.492)
Previous year’s employees/branch      -0.013       -0.046                     -0.006        -0.008
(0.036)      (0.063)                    (0.029)      (0.060)
Lagged net income SCA residuals        0.267       4.025                      -1.078         3.519  
  as percentage of  total bank assets    (3.437)     (4.373)                     (2.811)      (4.107)
Lagged operating expense SCA res.   -2.976       -0.568                     -0.614        -0.219
   as percentage of total bank assets    (2.053)     (-2.429)                   (1.699)       (2.289)
Previous year’s number of deposit       0.435**     0.162**                  0.236**     0.149**
         accounts (in thousands)              (.044)        (.043)                      (.049)        (.053)
Number of branches in current year                                                    -0.776**    -0.049
    (.088)        (.119)
Number of branches x nominal GDP                                                   -2.933**   -0.293 
   in a province  (quintillion of lire)                                                      (1.139)      (1.018) 
Number of branches x per capita GDP     3.994**     1.451**
   in a province (100 trillion of lire)                                                       (.476)        (.497) 
Mean              33.424    99.014   33.424       99.014  
 
Standard error of estimate      21.657    34.022                       17.569       31.903
 
Multiple correlation coefficient   .924        .969                           .951          .974
F  -  ratio                               323.5**   746.0**                     337.2**    568.1**
Number of observations         165         147                           165          147 1 In 1991 the number of branches in a province was estimated from the number of
branches owned by sample banks; it was  not all branches in a province as in other years.
     Table 7
     TOBIT  REGRESSIONS  OF  STOCK  OF  ATMS  OF  BANKS  IN  PROVINCES
(Dependent variable is number of ATMs a bank has in a province)
variable 1991     1992        1993       1994      1995
Intercept                             -5.930    -5.244      -5.263     -3.522       -3.246      
        (1.168)     (1.187)     (0.722)     (1.233)     (1.319)
Branches            .124**     .171**      .347**      .399**      .494**
                     (.032)    (.030)       (.029)       (.030)       (.034)
Bank’s share of all                7.315**    -.350       -9.837** -10.872** -14.093**  
       branches in a province 
1   (2.659)     (3.290)     (3.353)     (3.459)      (3.862)
Per capita GDP (millions        .280**      .252**     .207**      .158**      .148**
    of lire)           (.029)    (.028)       (.026)       (.025)       (.026) 
Average % change in GDP   -.247         -.199       -1.916       -.146         -.133
          (.158)       (.163)      (2.157)      (.171)       (.184)
Number of deposit accounts   .343**      .288**      .269**     .253**      .240**
     (thousands of accounts)    (.014)       (.014)       (.015)       (.015)       (.017)
Deposits (trillions of lire)       -.793        3.424**    3.193**    4.431**   4.363**
                                              (.556)       (.561)       (.555)       (.610)      (.657)
Employees/branch .023*        .008          .008         .035*       .027
          (.011)        (.009)       (.010)       (.015)      (.017)
Number of observations 1600      1665 1700      1739        1744
Number of limit observations    285        232   189         147 114
Disturbance standard deviation 5.98       6.31           6.56       6.83         7.42
Log likelihood function        -4416.8   -4842.0       -5130.6   -5431.3     -5666.0  Table 8
TOBIT REGRESSIONS OF CHANGES IN ATMS OF BANKS IN PROVINCES
(Dependent variable is first difference of ATMs a bank has in a province)
variable 1991-2 1992-3 1993-4 1994-5
Intercept -5.434 -2.052 -2.077 -4.397
(1.046) (0.761) (0.882) (0.869)
Branches at end of period  0.053*  0.106**  0.126**  0.098**
  (.027)   (.017)   (.019)   (.019)
Bank’s share of all branches    7.208**  4.011**  0.768   5.945**
   in a province at end of per. (2.129)            (1.524) (1.861)  (1.712)
Per capita GDP in second  0.099** -0.006 -0.034  -0.008
   year (hundred mils. of lire) (0.026)            (0.017) (0.020)  (0.019)
Average % change in GDP -0.009  -0.072 -0.049   0.152
            (0.143)            (0.105) (0.120)  (0.116)
End of period number of  -0.021  -0.019            -0.033**  -0.048**
    deposit accounts (10,000s)  (0.013)  (0.010) (0.011)  (0.010)
End of period deposits   3.645**   0.855**  1.409**  -0.209
    (trillions of lire)  (0.443)  (0.318) (0.426)  (0.359)
End of period employees   0.005   0.011   0.018   0.014
    per branch  (0.008)  (0.007)  (0.010)  (0.011)
ATMs at end of first year  -0.059**   0.024   0.018    0.066**
 (0.023)  (0.016)  (0.017)  (0.015)
Change in bank’s own    0.431**   0.433**   0.224**   1.238**
    branches over time span   (0.086)  (0.075)  (0.038)  (0.107)
Change in branches of rival   -0.002   0.006   0.016**   0.018**
     banks over time span   (0.008)   (0.004)  (0.006)  (0.007)
Number of observations   1616   1655   1703   1695
Disturbance standard deviation  4.822    3.583   4.148   3.745
Log likelihood function -2721.7 -2514.3 -2652.1 -2106.2Table 8a
OLS  REGRESSIONS  OF  CHANGES  IN  ATMS  OF  BANKS  IN  PROVINCES
(Dependent variable is first difference of ATMs a bank has in a province)
variable 1991-2 1992-3 1993-4 1994-5
Intercept -1.131    .063    .256    .038
  (.591)   (.412)   (.513)   (.362)
Branches at end of period  0.029    0.097**   0.072**   0.053**
  (.017)   (.010)    (.013)    (.010)
Bank’s share of all branches -2.179  -2.032*   0.194   0.421
    in a province at end of per. (1.345)    (.923)  (1.156)    (.833)
Per capita GDP in second  0.069**    0.009  -0.012  -0.009
    year (hundred mils. of lire)  (.015)   (0.009)    (.012)    (.008)
Average % change in GDP  0.013   -0.021              0.049   0.037
  (.081)     (.057)    (.070)    (.049)
End of period number of -0.011   -0.035**   0.034**  -0.025**
    deposit accounts (10,000s)   (.009)                (.006)    (.007)    (.005)
End of period deposits  3.802**    1.560**  -0.279    -0.060
    (trillions of lire)         (.292)     (.197)    (.259)     (.184)
End of period employees  -0.000     0.002   0.003    0.003
    per branch   (.004)      (.003)    (.006)     (.005)
ATMs at end of first year  -0.082**    -0.005  -0.021    0.054**
   (.015)      (.010)    (.011)     (.008)
Change in bank’s own    0.290**     0.245**   0.242**    0.605** 
    branches over time span    (.056)      (.046)    (.026)     (.053)
Change in branches of rival  -0.017**    -0.002   0.006    0.006*   
    banks over time span    (.005)      (.002)    (.004)     (.003)
Binary variable; = 1 if change  -4.022**    -2.802**  -3.728**   -2.686** 
   in ATMs negative, else = 0    (.470)      (.349)    (.482)     (.295)                           Table 9
CHANGES IN CONCENTRATION OF SAMPLE BANK MARKET SHARES
province                   correlation coefficients for                 number of                provincial
                       ATMs     branches     deposits     loans      observations     branch Herfindahl index
                   1991      1996
Bologna            .36*         -.76*           -.28          .33*              41                   .11         .14
Brescia             -.15          -.45*           -.43*       -.36                31                   .11         .10
Firenze             -.27          -.71*           -.06         -.24                30                   .15         .13
Milano             -.37*        -.53*             .35*       -.27*              67                   .05          .05
Modena           -.20          -.60*            -.29        -.10                 30                  .11          .11
Roma              -.62*        -.87*            -.58*       -.27                59                   .10          .10
Torino             -.11          -.16               .23          .11                38                   .15          .15
Treviso           -.06           -.02              -.84*      -.27                33                   .09          .10
Verona           -.59*         -.82*             -.66*      -.60*              30                   .20          .18
Vicenza          -.55*         -.52*             -.46*       .12                31                   .14          .12
All other         -.43*        -.38*             -.26*      -.26*           1427                   NA          NA
    provinces
All provinces  -.41*        -.38*             -.25*      -.25*           1817                   NA          NA
____________
Note: An * indicates that a correlation coefficient is significantly different from zero at the .05       
   level in a two-tailed test using the Fisher - z transformation. For ATMs, branches, and deposits,  
   correlations are between a bank’s market share at the end of 1991 and the change in that share    
   between 1991 and the end of 1995. For loans changes were to the end of  1994.    Mean    1.544      1.253    1.316     1.009
    Standard error of estimate      3.229      2.287     2.826     2.014
   
    Multiple correlation coef.         .574                 .557                .421                .472
     F - ratio   185.6**   176.8**  104.9**            128.9**
     Number of observations        1665     1700     1739      1744
            . 

Competition through innovation : ATMs in Italian banks

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/econ/archive/wp9927.pdf

Competition through innovation : ATMs in Italian banks

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