Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs

Abstract

A high degree of cyclical synchronization between the new EU member states (NMS) from Central and Eastern Europe and the euro area is generally seen as a prerequisite for successful EMU enlargement. We establish stylized facts on economic linkages between NMS and the euro area using dynamic correlation and cohesion measures. We then identify the main structural common euro-area shocks and investigate their transmission to NMS by means of a large-scale factor model. We compare it to the propagation to current EMU members.Dynamic factor models, international business cycles, EMU enlargement, sign restrictions