Skewed policy responses and IT in Latin America

Abstract

Estimation of forward-looking interest rate rules is ubiquitous in the context of developed economy central banks. This paper considers the five countries in Latin America that have adopted the Inflation Targeting framework and performs estimations of forward-looking rules via i) standard least-squares criteria and ii) quantile regressions. The estimated standard mean effects indicate that Brazil, Chile and Mexico are strongly forward-looking for horizons of a year and more. The estimated quantile effects suggest that policy makers in Brazil, Chile and Mexico are likely to have faced more upside than downside risks to their one-year ahead inflation forecasts when setting their policies