Anatol Balbach

Christopher Bach

English

Research Papers in Economics

The New Look for the Balance of Payments
by CHRISTOPHER BACH and ANATOL BALBACH
THE RECENT revision by the Department of
Commerce in the presentation of balance-of-payments
statistics reflects the results of a review begun last
year. The Interagency Committee on Balance of Pay-
ments Statistics, convened by the Office of Manage-
ment and Budget, conducted the project as a response
to increasing dissatisfaction in Government, business,
and academic circles with the previous presentation
of the statistics, and with an analysis which focused
primarily on the liquidity balance and the official
reserve transactions balance.
The Structure of the [LS~
Balance of Payments
The U.S. balance of payments is a summary record
of all international transactions by the Government,
business and private US. residents, occurring during
a specified period of time. Like any other ledger, it
records every transaction as’’a credit and as a debit,
and, like any other ledger, it is without analytical
meaning. The analytical content emerges, however,
when all the entries are grouped into several accounts,
each of which describes some desired sector of inter-
national transactions. The net balance in each account
then indicates the U.S. position vis-h-vis the rest of
the world in this specific sector,
Which of these accounts should be grouped to-
gether to give a net picture of activities depends upon
what is considered of importance to the analyst or the
policymaker. The new presentation of the U.S. balance
of payments reflects precisely this goal — a new choice
of groupings to meet the current concerns of the offi-
cial decision-makers in our economy.
The accompaying table presents a condensed ver-
sion of the new U.S. balance-of-payments measures.
Positive numbers reflect net credits — an increase in
U.S. claims on foreigners or a decrease in foreign
claims on the United States, Negative numbers are
net debits — an increase in foreign claims on the
United States or a decrease in US. claims on for-
eigners. Major groupings (or “balances”), each yield-
ing different information, are underlined in the table.
Page 8
U.S. Balance of Payments, 1st Quarter, 1971
(Seasonally adjusted, millions of dollars)
Merchandise trade bolance 272
Military transactions, not 677
Travel and transportation, nat 484
nvestmont income, net 1,727
Other services, nat 21 3
Balance on goods and services 1,05!
Remittances, pensions and other transfers 351
Batancv on goods. services and
remittances 700
U.S. Government grant Cent, military) 432
Balance on cu.rent account 2dB
Lang’term private capstal flows, no? 997
Lang-term U.S. Government
capilal flaws, net 687
Balance on c..rrent 0cc! and lang.term
capital 1,416
Nontiqurd shart-term private capital flaws 100
Allocation of SDRs ISO
Errors and omissions, nit 1266
Net liquidity balance 2,604
Liquid strait-term private capitol flaws, net 2,919
Official reserve tronsoclionu balance -- 5323
IS JJsT’a.lm,’nt • i’in:i,sr.’-c .Ca,r.q.J, I rut, it fle,:,,..,..
.l:s,.u i’dl.
1.1 Ba/once on goods told .wiiu’c.s reflects tilt’ c.xporls
and imports of merchandise and services. In the first
quarter of 1971, U.S. exports exceeded imports by
$1,051 million, giving risc to U.S. claims against
foreigners in this account. If one is concerned with
the impact of foreign trade on current U.S. output
and employment, it is this balance which would
provide the most pertinent information.
2) Balance on goods, services and remittances adds
to the export-import balance all private transfers of
funds, or goods and services, for which there is no
corresponding increase in claims, This reduces the
change in US. claims on foreigners by $351 million,
leaving a balance of $700 million.
3) Balance on current account includes, in addition
to the above, U.S. Government grants of $432 million
which further reduce the increase in U.S. claims on
foreigners to $268 million. The balance on current
account is assumed to reflect current patterns of
trade and the “normal” net flow of gifts and grants
from the United States to foreign countries.
IFEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOUIS AUGUST 1971
4) Balance on current account and long-term capital
is frequently referred to as the “basic balance.” In
addition to the balance on current account, it includes
long-term capital flows and is used to measure long-
run balance-of-payments positions. Except for U.S.
military transactions and U.S. Government grants, it
responds primarily to market forces consisting of
price differentials and investment opportunity differ-
entials among trading economies. As such, it reflects
tastes and preferences of consumers, efficiency of
producers, and the time preference of all decision-
making units.
If one is primarily concerned with the international
flows of resources, with the benefits derived from in-
ternational commerce, with the impact of interna-
tional trade on domestic income and production, or
with estimates of long-run movements in exports and
imports, one would use the “basic balance” as a yard-
stickand as a toolfor analysis.
In the first quarter of 1971 this balance was $—1,416
million, indicating that, although U.S. exports ex-
ceeded U.S. imports by $1,051 million, gifts and
remittances abroad and net purchases of foreign cap-
ital by U.S. residents increased foreign claims on
U.S. dollars by the amount of the balance.
5) Net liquidity balance measures the change in
liquid assets or liabilities generated during the period
under consideration. The balance on current account
and long-term capital indicates that U.S. net liabilities
increased by $1,416 million. In addition, U.S. residents
bought nonliquid short-term foreign capital valued at
$100 million and errors and omissions amounted to
$1,268 million.
Private nonliquid short-term capital moves primarily
in response to short-term interest rate differentials,
and, although these movements are market-induced,
were not included in the “basic balance.” Short-term
interest differentials are temporary and readily rev-
ersible, so that they create enough volatility in these
capital movements to make them incompatible with
long-mn or “basic” concepts.
At any point in time when the balance of payments
is computed, there are transactions which escape de-
tection and classification into the above-mentioned
“balances.” There are normal errors in reporting, lags
associated with items in process of collection, and
some private transactions, frequently in Eurodollars,
which cannot be detected under present reporting
procedures. When total reported credits and debits
are compared, any net difference represents errors
and omissions and a change in claims against the
dollar.
During the first quarter of 1971, the United States
received its quarterly allocation of SDRs of $180
million which reduced liquid liabilities outstanding.
Therefore, net liquid liabilities generated amounted
to $2,604 million.
6) The official reserve transactions balance records
the net change in U.S, monetary reserve assets plus
the net change in liquid and certain nonliquid liabil-
ities to foreign official agencies. This balance indicates
the direct pressure which may be exerted by official
agencies on U.S. gold and other official reserves, or
the foreign exchange rate.
The net liquidity balance shows that total foreign
liquid claims increased by $2,604 million in the first
quarter of 1971. In addition, private foreign indi-
viduals and banks reduced their short-term liquid
capital holdings in the U.S. by another $2,919 million.
Because foreigners, as a group, can reduce theft
balances only by transfer to official agencies, there
has been an increase in U.S. liabilities to these agen-
cies of $5,523 million; $2,604 million which were
incurred during the first quarter of 1971 and an
additional $2,919 million as private foreigners re-
duced theft previously accumulated liquid claims.
RevWons in the Liquidity Balance
and Private Short-Term Capital
More important than the Department of Commerce’s
attempt to focus attention on several balances was
their decision to reclassify liquid assets of the private
short-term capital account. Under previous methods
of reporting the liquidity balance, private short-term
liquid liabilities were recorded as an item which
“financed” (settled) a deficit or surplus once it had
been incurred, while short-term liquid assets were
considered an item which created a surplus or deficit.
Under the new method of presentation, private short-
term liquid liabilities and private short-term liquid
assets are treated similarly, and both are entered as
items which “finance” the liquidity balance.
U.S. Balance of Payments
P’eviaus Mirthod Present Method
Private Short.Tern, Capital Private Shart.Term Copitol
Account Account
Nonliquid Nonliquid
Assets Assets
Liabilities Liabilities
Liquid Assets
Liquid Liobilitier Liquid Liobililies
Liquid Assets
‘list’ sigisilic:tiict’ (If tilt’ (liSlilst’tit)Il 1)(’t\Vt’(II t’sits’rixig
liquid assets as part of the short-term capital account
Page 9FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOUIS AUGUST 1971
and entering liquid assets with liquid liabilities as a
means of financing the liquidity balance can be seen
in the following example. If an American Bank and a
foreign bank exchange deposits of $100 by crediting
each other’s account, the transactions entered on the
U.S. balance-of-payments statement under the old
system of accounting would show an outflow of
capital without any offsetting inflow of capital. The
rise in the American bank’s assets abroad would ap-
pear above the dotted line with a minus sign as a
factor contributing to the balance-of-payments deficit,
while the rise in the foreign bank’s deposits in the
United States would appear below the dotted line
with a plus sign as a means of “financing,” but not
offsetting, the deficit. Instead of a zero liquidity
balance, the statement records a liquidity deficit of
$100. Under the present method of presentation, the
exchange of deposits would cancel out and the ac-
counts would show a liquidity balance of zero.
U.S. Balance of Payments
Previous Method Present Method
Private Shart.Term
Liquid Assets
$100
- Liquidity Liquidity
Balonce $100 Bolonce $ 0
Pr,vote Short-Term P’ivate Short-Term
Liq uid Liabil tics Liquid Assets
100 -- $100
Private Shorl.Term
Liquid Liabilities
100
The same type of problem would occur if banks of
only one country were involved. Interbank transfers
of funds that shifted deposits from parent banks in
the U.S. (liquid assets of Americans) to branches of
U.S. banks located abroad (liquid liabilities to for-
eigners) would be recorded in the same manner as
the above example.
Both types of capital movements have reduced the
usefulness of the liquidity balance in recent years by
producing large, temporary swings in the liquidity
balance when there were at least partially offsetting
capital movements. The new method of presentation
eliminates the artificial distinction between American
and foreign short-term liquid assets and liabilities and
thereby relates the short-run behavior of the liquidity
balance more closely to the actual external liquidity
position of the United States. However, because many
short-term capital movements are recorded as errors
and omissions which appear above the dotted line,
there will continue to be a large divergence between
the measured and actual external liquidity positions.
Certain Nonliquid Liabilities to
Foreign Official Agencies
Another change in the presentation of the liquidity
balance was to reclassify items grouped as certain
nonliquid liabilities to foreign official agencies from a
nonliquid to a liquid category. This group of long-term
liabilities of U.S. banks and the Government was
entered in the previous presentation with other non-
liquid items in the Government and private capital
accounts. In the new presentation they are considered
a financing item and, like other private short-term
liquid assets and liabilities, do not affect the liquidity
balance.
U.S. Balance of Payments
Prevous Method Present Method
certain Nontiquid
Liobilities to Foreign
Officiot Agencies
Certain Nonliquid
Liobilities to Foreign
Official Agencies
iiic~c nOuhilhdlV uorshc1uid long—tersn liabilities arc
issued for the purpose of reducing liquid dollar hold-
ings of foreign official agencies, and generally carry
with them a provision for convertibility to liquid form.
In essence they simply provide another way for for-
eign central banks to hold accumulated liquid as-
sets. When recorded as a nonliquid capital inflow
under the previous method, they reduced recorded
liquid liabilities of the U.S. and thereby, the measured
liquidity deficit, while in reality there was little, if
any, decline in liquid claims on the dollar. The new
method eliminates this artificial reduction in the
liquidity deficit.
Comnarison of Alternative
Liquidity Balances
The accompanying charts compare the gross liquid-
ity balance (previous presentation) with the net li-
Alternative Balance of Payments Measures
Rit.inn; nI flnin’c - Bili onc ef Doors
Gross Liquidity Balance(old) L~/.\
1” •~ j Net tsquidtly 6etancelnew~ \2’~’ —
\
/ /‘/// /~//\///~//,
/ //\///////////
Page 10FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST LOUIS AUGUST 1971
quidity balance (present presentation). The patterns
of both the quarterly and annual data for the periods
available are quite similar to the old series and
therefore do not require any major new analysis of
the U.S. external liquidity position. The revised
treatment of certain nonliquid liabilities had its most
pronounced impact on the liquidity position in 1967
and 1968, when it made the net liquidity deficit
larger than the gross liquidity deficit, and in 1969 and
1970 when it made the net liquidity deficit less than
the gross. It is difficult to measure the impact of the
change in the treatment of liquid assets (and in par-
ticular, net Eurodollar flows), because there is no
direct data on many international capital flows. If
available, such data would probably show a reduction
in the net liquidity balance relative to the gross liquid-
ity balance.
Since many short-term capital flows will continue
to be entered in errors and omissions, the net liquidity
balance will, in effect, continue to distinguish arbi-
trarily between short-term liquid assets and liabilities,
leaving the net liquidity balance little changed from
the old concept. In periods when short-term capital
flows are large and unrecorded, there will continue
to be a significant difference between the concept of
net liquidity and the statistics purported to show it,
Page 11

The new look for the balance of payments

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