Measuring the Impact of Intervention on Exchange Market Pressure

Abstract

We introduce an index of ex ante exchange market pressure (EMP) that can be used as a benchmark against which to measure the effectiveness of sterilized intervention. Ex ante EMP is the change in the exchange rate that would be observed if the authorities refrain from intervening and agents correctly anticipate this outcome. Ex post EMP measures exchange market pressure under the policy actually implemented. We use a ratio of these two EMP measures to assess the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in Canada and Australia, and find that its effects persist even in quarterly data.exchange market pressure; foreign exchange intervention; Bank of Canada