Aggregating causal judgements

Abstract

Decision making typically requires judgements about causal relations. We need to know both the causal effects of our actions and the causal relevance of various environmental factors. Judgements about the nature and strength of causal relations often differ, even among experts. How to handle such diversity is the topic of this paper. First we consider the possibility of aggregating causal judgements via the aggregation of probabilistic ones. The broadly negative outcome of this investigation leads us to look at aggregating causal judgements independently of probabilistic ones. We do so by transcribing causal claims into the judgement aggregation framework and applying some recent results in this field. Finally we look at the implications for probability aggregation when it is constrained by prior aggregation of causal judgements.mathematical economics;