Prediction beyond the survey sample: correcting for survey effects on consumer decisions.

Abstract

Direct extrapolation of survey results on purchase intentions may give a biased view onactual consumer behavior. This is because the purchase intentions of consumers maybe affected by the survey itself. On the positive side, such effects can be incorporated ineconometric models to get reliable estimates of actual behavior of non-surveyed consumers,which often is the ultimate purpose of survey studies. This paper proposes a reasonablysimple methodology to correct for such possible survey effects and to get consistent pre-dictions beyond the survey sample. The potential merits of the method are illustrated bya supermarket survey on easy-to-prepare food products and related health issues. Thisindicates that the required corrections can be quite substantial and that predictions thatneglect survey effects can be seriously biased indeed.econometric models;consumer behavior;bias correction;purchase prediction;survey effects