Geoffrey H. Moore

Julius Shiskin

English

Research Papers in Economics

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic
Research
Volume Title: Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions
Volume Author/Editor: Moore, Geoffrey H. and Julius Shiskin
Volume Publisher: UMI
Volume ISBN: 0-87014-444-8
Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/moor67-2
Publication Date: 1967
Chapter Title: APPENDIX G Titles and Sources of Series Reviewed in This Report
Chapter Author: Geoffrey H. Moore, Julius Shiskin
Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c1277
Chapter pages in book: (p. 114 - 119)BES: Bureau of Employment Security, Department
of Labor
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of
Labor
Census: Bureau of the Census, Department of Com-
merce
FRB: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
Federal Housing Administration
Federal Trade Commission
National Association of Purchasing Agents,
Business Survey Committee
National Bureau of Economic Research
National Industrial Conference Board
Office of Business Economics, Department of
Commerce
SEC: Securities and Exchange Commission
Series Number and Title
Source
(current data shown first, historical segments next)
*1. Average hours of work per week, production
workers, manufacturing
2. Labor turnover, manufacturing, gross accession
rate
3. Labor turnover, manufacturing, total layoff rate
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all in-
dustries
5. Initialclaims, unemployment insurance, state
programs
*6. Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods in-
dustries
7. New private nonfarm housing units started,
number
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor area
*10. Contracts awarded, and orders for plant and
equipment, value
11.Newcapital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures, all commercial
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*16. Corporate profits after taxes
BLS, 1935ff.; NICB, 1920—34; seasonal adjustment
NBER for 1920—34
BLS, June 1929ff.; Metropolitan Life Insurance Co.,
1919—May 1929; seasonal adjustment by NBER for
1919—May 1929
See2
BLSand Census, July 1959ff.; Census, 1947—Juiie 1959;
seasonal adjustment by Census
BES, 1945ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census
Census, 1947ff.; OBE, 1939—46, seasonal adjustment by
NBER; NICB, 1929—38; NBEJI, 1920—29
Census, 1945ff.; BLS, 1939—44; F. W. Dodge Co. (floor
area of residential building contracts awarded), 1918—38;
seasonal adjustment of residential contracts by NBER
F. W. Dodge Co., seasonal adjustment by Census,
1960ff., and NBER, 1919-59
F. W. Dodge Co. and Census, 1948ff.; seasonal adjust-
ment by NBER and Census
NICB, 1953ff.
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., 1945ff.; Corporation Trust
Company, 1936—44; G. H. Evans, Jr., Business Incor-
porations in the United States, 1800—1943 (NBER, 1948);
seasonal adjustment by Census and NBER
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., 1875ff.; seasonal adjustment
by Census, 1960ff., and by NBER, 1875—1959
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., 1894ff.; seasonal adjustment
by Census, 1960ff.; by NBER, 1894—1959. Data repre-
sent weekly averages per month of all business failures
with over $100,000 liabilities, 1948ff.; through 1947, only
monthly failuresof manufacturing firms with over
$100,000 liabilities were included.
OBE, 1939ff.; H. Barger, Outlay and income in the United
States, 19f11—1938 (NBER, 1942)
114 APPENDIX C
Appendix G
Titles and Sources of Series Reviewed in This Report
Note: The numbers assigned to the series are for identification only and do not reflect relationships among the
series. The numbers are given in all text tables and charts as well as in the index. Series preceded by an asterisk
are on short list of 25 indicators. Abbreviated names of source agencies are:
FHA:
FTC:
NAPA:
NBER:
NICB:
OBE:APPENDIX G 115
Appendix G (Continued)
Series Number and Title
Source
(current data shown first, historical segments next)
*17. Price per unit of labor cost index: ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods to index
of total labor cost (production worker wage cost
prior to 1948) per unit of output in manufacturing
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manu-
facturing corporations
'19. Index of stock prices, 500commonstocks
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories
of purchased materials
21. Change in business inventories, all industries
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originat-
ing, corporate, all industries
*23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Manufacturers' new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
26. Members' buying policy, percentage reporting
commitments for production materials, 60 days
or longer
*29. New private housing units authorized by local
building permits
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories
32. Vendor performance: percentage of members re-
porting slower deliveries
33. Change in mortgage debt held by financial insti-
tutions and life insurance companies
37. Percentage of members reporting higher inven-
tories of purchased materials
*38. Index of net business formation
39. Consumer instalment loans, delinquency rate, 30
days and over
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse pres-
ent
BLS; OBE; and FRB, 1948ff., seasonal adjustment by
Census; same sources for 1919—48 data except for seg-
ment of wholesale price index by F. C. Mills which comes
from unpublished table, 1941ff., and from Prices in a
War Economy (NBER, 1943), 1927—40; seasonal adjust-
ment of production worker wage cost, 1919—48, by
NBER
FTC and SEC, 1947ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census
Standard and Poor's Corp., 1918ff.; Cowles Commission
for Research in Economics, 1871—1917
OBE, 1939-6 1 (discontinued); current estimates of in-
ventories of materials and supplies by Census available
from 1953 on
OBE, 1939ff.; H. Barger, op. cit., 1921—38
OBE, 1946ff.
BLS, 1935ff.; unpublished index compiled by R. P. Mack
(NBER), described in "Inflation and Quasi-Elective
Changes in Costs," Review of Economics and Stalistics,
August 1959, 1919—34
Census, 1948ff.
Census, 1947ff.; OBE, 1939—46
NAPA, 1950ff.
Census, 1946ff.; index based on Census estimates, 1954ff.,
and on BLS estimates, 1946—53, seasonal adjustment by
Census; F. W. Dodge Co. (floor area of residential build-
ing contracts awarded), 1918—45; seasonal adjustment
by NBER
BES, 1945ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census
Census and OBE, 1939ff.
Purchasing Agents Association of Chicago, 1946ff.
Federal Home Loan Bank Board; National Association
of Mutual Savings Banks; FRB; and Institute of Life
Insurance, 1955ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census
NAPA, 1947ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Census, 1948ff.; seasonal
adjustment by Census and NBER; OBE, 1945—47
American Bankers Association, Instalment Credit Com-
mission, 1947ff.; seasonal adjustment by NBER. Num-
ber of delinquent loans as percentage of total number
outstanding.
BLS and Census, July 1959ff.; Census, 1954—June 1959;
seasonal adjustment by BLS116 APPENDIX G
Appendix G (Continued)
Employees in nonagricultural establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
*43• Unemployment rate, total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
state programs
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars, ex-
penditure estimate
*50. Gross national product in constant dollars, ex-
penditure estimate
51. Bank debits outside New York City
*52. Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and con-
struction
*54 Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other
than farm products and foods
56. Wholesale trade sales
57. Final sales in current dollars
58. Index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip-
ment, total
*62. Index of total labor cost (production worker wage
cost prior to 1948) per unit of output
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, total
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories,
finished goods
66. Consumer instalment debt
BLS, 1929ff.; seasonal adjustment prior to 1939 by FRB
BLS and Census, July 1959ff.; Census, 1940—June 1959;
seasonal adjustment by NBER prior to 1947
BLS and Census, July 1959ff.; Census, May 1940—June
1959; NICB, 1929—April 1940; seasonal adjustment.
1948ff., by BLS; 1929—47, by NBER
BES, 1949ff.
NICB,1951ff.;MetropolitanLifeInsuranceCo.,
1919—50; seasonal adjustment, 1919—50, by NBER
FRB, 1919ff.
OBE, 1939ff.; H. Barger and L. R. Xlein, unpublished
estimates, revising figures in H. Barger, op. cit., 1921—38
OBE, 1947ff.; H. Barger and L. R. Klein, unpublished
estimates, revising figures in H. Barger, op. cit., 1921—38
FRB, 1919ff.; seasonal and working day adjustments by
NBER (series represents 343 banking centers, April
1955—1964; 344 centers, 1943—March 1955; 140 centers,
1919—42; discontinued 1964 and replaced by series cover-
ing 224 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, which
include all centers formerly covered)
OBE, 1929ff.; H. Barger and L. R. Klein, unpublished
estimates, revising figures in H. Barger, op. cit., 1921—38
OBE, 1929ff.
Census, 1951ff.; OBE, 1935—50; FRB, 1919—34 (index
of department store sales)
BLS, 1913ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census, 1948ff.;
by NBER, 1913—47
Census (merchant wholesalers),1948ff.; OBE (total
wholesale trade), 1939—47; FRB (index of wholesale
trade sales in 9 lines), 1919—29
OBE, 1939ff.; H. Barger, op. cit., 1921—38
BLS, 1913ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census, 1947ff.;
index of wholesale prices of finished products used
1913—46, no seasonal adjustment for that period
OBE and SEC, 1947ff.; L. J. Chawner (Department of
Commerce), "Capital Expenditures for Manufacturing
Plant and Equipment" (Survey of Current Business,
March 1941), 1915—40
OBE (total employee compensation in manufacturing)
and FRB (output in manufacturing), 1948ff.; seasonal
adjustment by Census; BLS (production worker payroll
in manufacturing) and FRB (output in manufacturing),
1919—48
Census, 1947ff.; OBE, 1926—46
Census, 1953ff.; OBE, 1939—52
FRB, 1929ff.; seasonally adjusted net debt change used
to derive seasonally adjusted debt outstanding; prior to
February 1955, seasonal adjustment of debt outstanding
by NBER
Source
Series Number and Title (current data shown first, historical segments next)APPENDIX G 117
Appendix G (Continued)
Series Number and Title
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (cus-
tomers other than business included, 1919—39)
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
gross product (ratio: compensation of corporation
employees to value of corporate product in 1958
dollars)
*71. Book value of manufacturing and trade inven-
tories, total
*72. Commercial and industrial bank loans outstand-
ing
81. Index of consumer prices, all items
82. Federal expenditures: cash payments to the pub-
lic, 1948ff.; budget expenditures, 1879—1948
83. Federal receipts: cash receipts from the public,
1948ff.; budget receipts, 1879—1948
84. Federal surplus or deficit: cash, 1948ff.; budget,
1879—1948
85. Percentage change in total motiey supply (do-
mancl deposits plus currency)
86. Total exports (excluding military aid shipments
after JWIe 1950)
87. General imports, total
88. Merchandise trade balance
89. Excess of receipts or payments iii the U.S. balance
of payments
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business
firms
93. Free reserves at Federal Beserve Banks (member
banks' excess reserves minus borrowings)
94. Construction contracts awarded, total, value
95. Federal surplus or deficit on national income and
product accounts
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manu-
facturirig corporations
98. Percentage change in total money supply plus
commercial bank time deposits
99. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national
defense
Source
(current data shown first, historical segments next)
FRB, 1939ff.; FRB (unpublished data), 1929—39; W. W.
Riefier (FRB), Money Rates and Money Markets in the
United States (1930), 1919—28
OBE and Census, 1948ff.
Census and OBE, 1939ff.
FRB, 1937ff.; seasonal adjustment by NBER. Data
repr'esent commercial and industrial loans outstanding
oii last Wednesday of month as reported by member
banks in leading cities through June 29, 1966, and by
large commercial banks thereafter.
BLS, 1913ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census, 1947ff.;
by NBER, 1913—33
Bureau of Accounts, Treasury Department, and Bureau
of the Budget, 1948ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census;
Treasury Department, Fiscal Service, and predecessor
agencies, 1879—1948; seasonal by NBER
See 82
See 82
FRB, 1947ff.; M. Friedman and A. J. Schwartz, A Mone-
tary History of the United States: 1867—1960 (Princeton
University Press for NBEH, 1963), 1907—46
Census, and predecessor agencies, 1866ff.; seasonal ad-
justnient by Census, 1948ff.; by NBER, 1866—1947
See 86
See 86
OBE, 1945ff., seasonal adjustment by NBER, 1945—49
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division, 1953ff.
seasonal adjustment by Census
See 90
Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Serv-
ices, 1951ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census
FBB, 1929ff.
F. W. Dodge Co., 1910ff.; seasonal adjustment by NBER
OBE, 1946ff.
Census, 1947ff.; OBE, 1939—46; seasonal adjustment,
1930—46, by NBER
NICB, 1953ff.
See 85
Census, 1953ff.
OBE, 1946ff.118 APPENDIX C
Appendix G (Continued)
Series Number and Title
Source
(current data shown first, historical segments next)
110. Total private borrowing by nonfinancial bor-
rowers
111. Corporate gross savings
112. Change in bank loans to businesses
*113. Net change in consumer instalment debt
114. Treasury bill rate, new issues, 3-month bills
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
117. Yield on high-grade municipal bonds
118. Secondary market yields on FHA-insured home
mortgages for immediate delivery
301. Nonagricultural job openings, number pending
501. Man-hours in nonfarm establishments, all em-
ployees
*502. Unemployment rate, percentage of persons un-
employed 15 weeks and over
503. Manufacturers' sales, total
505. Manufacturers' sales of machinery and equip-
ment, and business construction expenditures
801. Man-hours in nonfarm industries, persons with a
job
802. Man-hours in nonfarm industries, persons at
work
803. Unemployment rate, percentage of persons unem-
ployed less than 5 weeks
804. Unemployment rate, percentage of persons unem-
ployed 5 to 14 weeks
805. Labor turnover rate, manufacturing, new hires
806. Labor turnover rate, manufacturing, rehires
807. Nonagricultural employment, commodity-pro-
ducing industries
808. Nonagricultural employment, service industries
809. Help-wanted display ads for executive positions
in newspapers, total
810. Gross national product in current dollars, income
estimate
FRB, 1952ff.
FRB, 1952ff. (gross retained earnings of non-financial
corporations)
FRB, 1937ff.; seasonal adjustment by NBER; see 72
FRB, 1929ff.; prior to 1955, seasonal adjustment by
NBER (month-to-month change in seasonally adjusted
debt outstanding at end of month)
FRB, 1920ff.; yield on 3—6-month Treasury notes and
certificates used 1920—30; seasonal adjustment by NBER,
1948—61, and 1920—30
Treasury Department, 1919ff.
Treasury Department,1960ff.;First National City
Bank, 1948—59
The Bond Buyer, 1948ff.; Standard and Poor's Corp.,
1919—48
FHA, 1964ff.; S. A. Klaman (National Association of
Mutual Savings Banks, unpublished estimates), 1953—63;
J.M. Guttentag (unpublished estimates made for
Federal Reserve Bank of New York), 1948—53
BES, 1946ff.; seasonal adjustment by Census
BLS and Census, July 1959ff.; Census for workweek
component and BLS for employment, 1941—June 1959;
seasonal adjustment by Census
BLS and Census, July 1959ff.; Census, 1948—June 1959;
seasonal adjustment by BLS
Census, 1947ff.; OBE, 1926—46
Census, 1953ff. (machinery and equipment sales) and
1948ff.(businessconstructionexpenditures); OBE,
1948—52 (unpublished estimates of machinery and equip-
ment sales)
BLS and Census, July 1959ff.; Census, 1941—June 1959;
seasonal and holiday adjustments by NBER
See 801
BLS and Census, July 1959ff.; Census, 1948—June 1959;
seasonal adjustment by BLS
See 803
BLS and BES, 1951ff. (series is component of accession
rate)
See 805
BLS, 1939ff.
See 807
Beveridge Organization, Chicago, Ill., for Heidrick and
Struggles, Chicago-Los Angeles, 1954ff.; seasonal adjust-
ment by NBER
OBE, 1939ff.(gross national product or expenditure
minus "statistical discrepancy")APPENDIX C
Appendix G (Concluded)
119
Series Number and Title
Source
(current data shown first, historical segments next)
811. Gross national product in constant dollars, in-
come estimate
812. Final sales in constant dollars
813. Automobile production, passenger cars
814. Steel ingot production
815. Index of truck tonnage hauled
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
817. Personalconsumptionexpenditures,durable
goods
818. Gross private domestic investment, business
sector
819. Gross private domestic investment, total
820. Index of production of equipment, including de-
fense
821. Manufacturers' sales of machinery and equip-
ment
822. New construction expenditures, business sector
823. Number of shares sold on the New York stock
Exchange
824. Common stock offerings, manufacturing corpora-
tions
825. Metal cutting type machine tools, dome8tic gross
new orders
826. Month-to-month change in department store
stocks on hand and on order
827. New nonfarm mortgages recorded, $20,000 and
under
828. Automobile direct instalment loans, delinquency
rate, 30 days and over
861. Manufacturers' new orders for exports of durable
goods, excluding motor vehicles and parts
862. Index of new machinery orders for export, Mc-
Graw-Hi 11
See 810 (implicit price deflator applied to series 810)
OB,1947ff.
FRB (index of production of autos, based on Ward's
AutomotiveReports), 1947ff., Census, July 1921—1941,
and National Automobile Chamber of Commerce, 1913—
June 1921 (factory sales of passenger cars); seasonal
adjustment for 1913—41 by NBER
American Iron and Steel Institute, July 1917ff.; Iron
Age, 1899—June 1917, seasonal adjustment by NBER
American Trucking Associations, Department of Re-
search and Transportation Economics, 1946ff.
Census and OBE, 1946ff.
OBE, 1939ff.
See 819 (aggregate investment in producers' durable
equipment and nonresidential structures, prior to 1946,
construction was represented by new construction, ex-
cluding residential nonfarm)
OBE 1939ff.
FRB, 1947ff.
Census, 1953ff., OBE (unpublished estimates), 1948—52
Census, 1939ff. (aggregate value in current dollars of
industrial, commercial, and public utility construction
put in place)
Commercial Finaiicial Chronicle and New York Stock
Exchange, 1875ff.
SEC, 1951; seasonal adjustment by NBER (estimated
gross proceeds of all new common stock offered for cash
sale)National Machine Tool Builders' Association,
1945ff.;seasonal adjustment by NBER
FRB, 1940—63, seasonal adjustment by NBER
Federal Home Loan Bank Board, 1939—65, seasonal ad-
justment by NBER
American Bankers Association, Instalment Credit Com-
mission, 1947ff.; Eeasonal adjustment by NBER. Num-
ber of delinquent loans as percentage of total outstand-
ing
Census, 1962ff.
McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., 1957ff., seasonal adjust-
ment by NBER

Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions

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Research Papers in Economics