A Novel Methodology for comparison of different wind power ramp characterization approaches

Abstract

International audienceWind power forecasting is recognized as a means to facilitate large scale wind power integration into power systems. Recently, focus has been given on developing dedicated short-term forecasting approaches for the case of large and sharp wind power variations, so-called ramps. Accurate forecasts of specific ramp characteristics (e.g. timing, probability of occurrence, etc) are important since the related forecast errors may lead to potentially large power imbalances, with high impact to the power system. Various works about ramps' periodicity or predictability have led to the development of new characterization approaches. The evaluation of these approaches has often been neglected, leading to potentially irrelevant conclusions on ramps characteristics, or ineffective forecasting approaches. In this work, we propose a comprehensive framework for evaluating and comparing different characterization approaches of wind power ramps