노트 : Evaluation period: 11-25 Mar 197

Sullivan, Jeremiah M.

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

K-Developedia(KDI School) Repository

Internatlonal Program of Laboratories for Population Statistics University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill TRIP REPORT No. 33 Korea (3) Joremdah M. Sullivan 11-25 March 1979 Distribution: Heung Koo Kang, Director General NBOS (3 copies) William E. Paiqze, USAID/Seoul Jams Brackott, USAID/Washington John H. Lawson, Jr., USAID/Washlngton Attachments Annex I 	 options for Constructing a Master Sampling Frame from the 1980 Population and Housing Census Annex II List of Persons Contacted Annex III List of Documents Obtained Trip Report KOREA (3) March 11-25, 1980 J. M. Sullivan I. Purpose of th'i Trip. The main objective was to negotiate a contract for a survey to measure the level of fertility and mortality in Korea. II. Organizatiom Visited. National Bureau of Statistics (NBOS) Korean Development Institute (KDI) Korean Institute of Family Planning (KIFP) Center for Population and Family Planning, Yonsei Univer­sity (CPFP) USAID/Seoul Most of the visit was spent !a Seoul at NBOS where the primary contacts were Dai Young Kimi (Deputy Director for Statist ical Surveys), Youtg Kwon Kim (lead, Population Statistics Division), and Nam Ii Kim (Vital Statistics Section). The primary activity was the writing of a contract. 11. Project Contract. A tripartite contract was written between POPLAB, NBOS and KDI. The contract specified a project for collecting fertility and mortality data within the framework of the Continuous Demographic Survey (CDS), an ongoing survey con­ducted and funded by NiOS. This is a woll-established Multiround survey (monthly rounds) which covers approximately 20,000 households in 300 sampling points (1975 Census 1Hnumeratiom Districts) throughout the Republic of Korea. The proposed project would continue the long series of nation4 fertility sur­2. veys which have monitored the progress of the Korean Family Planning Program since the early 1970s. The project proposed a survey which collects information on births and deaths occurring in a one-year time period by the multiround format. The period of field work is projected to be Jul) 1981 to July 1982. This is approximately 3 1/2 years after the last national fertility survey: the 1978 Family Planning and Fertility Survey. The project involves reloca­ting the CIS to new sample areas and initiating procedures to strengthen the supervision and training of the CBS field staff. The now sample area will be selected from a sampling frame constructed from 1980 census results and will contain a population of approximately 100,000 or about 20,000 house­holds. Inaddition, the proposed project offers an opportunity to test a modified procedure for collecting fertility and mortality data using the single-round retrospective survey approach. The plan is to collect retro­spective data by the modified procedure in the baseline round of the wil I he Ima( from these data and theyrelocated Ci)S. Vital rate (',,. inatve; will be conpared with the estimates derived from data collectcld by one year of follow-up rounds by the CDS. If it is determined that the nxlified pro­accurate vital rate estimates, itcedure provides high quality data and will be a significant addition to the family of demographic techniques suitable for use in developing countries. IV. 	 Project budget. Relative 	 to the basic cost of 12 monthly rounds of the CRS which will initiating procedures to ensur high qualitybe funded by NDOS, the cost of for an N1)OS contribution ofdata are minimal. The project budget calls $39S,410 and a iPCIAB contribution of S $88,895. 3. V. Factors of Special Importance to the Project Design. A. Nkster Sample for NBOS Surveys. Following the October 1980 census, NBOS will construct a master sampling frame which will provide samples for most of the rurveys undertaken by NBOS. Samples for at least the four followliag surveys are to be based on the master sampling frame: 1. Continuous Demgraphic Survey 2. Survey of Economically Active Population 3. Living Standards Survey 4. Household Expenditure Survey Planning for the master sample is now in its preliminary phase. Some options under consideration are discus'ed in Annex I. NBOS desires POPLAB consultation in further developing the master sampling plan, particularly with respect to 1) sample updating over time; 2) sample rotation in multiround surve)s and, 3) the precision of regional level estimates. The projected timetable for completing the construction of %ccm­puterized sampling frame is early to mid 1981. The CI)S sample could b drawn immediately following frame construction and field work could begin soon thereafter. B. Project Reports. Two project reports are planned. The first, scheduled for late 1981, will contain fertility ard nrtality cstimates based on retrospective dat a collected in the baseline survey. '!1hc second, scheduled for early 1983, will contain c:;timites based on current data from the Cr. C. Expected Number of Events in the CDS Past experience with the CDS has indicated the following nnumber of events occurring in a sample of approximately 21,000 households. Live births January 1, 1977 to August 31, 1978 3321 Infant deaths March 1, 1977 to August 31, 1978 85 Total deaths March 1, 1977 to August 31, 1978 900 D. Migration and Iiturwnratton of Ious;ehold ?&.,ner:;. Korea has extremely high rates of migration. This is a problem in multirotmd surveys whiich attempt to doctsemnt the occurrence of events between rounds. The problem is mitigated by short intervals between rotunds ard this is part of tix, Justification for the CD6 being conducted at monthly Intervals in the pait. A second problem requiring attention In the design of the CIS is the tendency for household Informnts to report peopl who have moved away (especially unmarried sons ani daughters who are working or studying, elsewhere) as household residents. Trip Report 33 March 11-25, 1980 ANNEX I options for Constructing a Master sampling Frame Prom the 1980 Population and Housing Census It is planned to construct the master sampling frame from information obtained in the October 1980 census. The basic unit for census activity is the enumeration district (ED). Els which will consist of approximately 75 households (in both urban and rural areas) will be formed by local govermnent officials trder the stpervision of NBOS staff (instnction mainLal for ED formation available at POILAI) in Koreml, ED formation should be coopleted by July 1980). The expected ntvber of Els for the 1980 census is 100,000. A fixed percentage of EDs (between 10 and 15%) wi ;e ill Whith AIl are theIIe SI TC! hotrw;eiiolt; admini;t('red census long form. In the reiruining I:. , all households will be administered the census short form. 1 The process of selecting Ens for long or short form coverage will in-olvo stratificat. n by province and urban-rural status. Tiw Master Sampling Frame will be constructed from long form F.I)s after stratification according to census data, inparticular data on economic activity of tle resident populatioE. The procdture by which the long form Mib are assigned a variable value with respect to primary type of econonic activity has in)ortant iqlicatins for tle time required to conntnct a stratified t.hiter Scq)lnlg Franin and thtr; the drawing to the new staplc areas ICopios of the 1980 Census Forms, in Korean, arc availabla at iOPI'AI. At I 2. for 	the Continuous Demographic Survey. At this point, there appear to be at least two options. 1. 	 The long form EIis could be stratified after all long form data are processed and each ED is accurately classified according to the primary economic activity oi the resident population.Given the Korean population of approximately 38 million or 7 million households and a 151 subsa of long form Os, there will be about 1 million questionnaires to process. This will not be completed until mid-1981 at the earliest. 2. 	 There are plans for advanced tabulations of the census results. These will be based on some sample of long forms which will receive priority in data processing. The current plan is for the advanced tabulations to represent 1 or 21 of the population which means 6.7 or 13.31 of the population or households in the long form Os (again assuming 15% of Eds are selected for L.F. coverage). An important issue is whether or not the advanced tabulation plan can be structured so that the computerized data are sufficient for constructing the Master Sampling Plan. If it is possible to classify l's and develop a Master Snnpling. Frame from the 	advanced tabulat ions, the time tahle for the C would be greatly accelerated. Trip Report 33 KOREA March 11-25, 1980 ANNEX II List of Persons Contacted National Bureau of Statistics of the Economic Planning Board 90, Kyung Woon Dong Jongnoku, Seoul 110, Korea Tel: 75-5371 Main No. Cable: NBOSEPB, SEOUL 72-1475 Pop. Div. Heung Koc, Kang Director General, NDOS Dai Young Kim Deputy Director for Statistical Surveys In Hwan COung Head, General Affairs Divison Young Won Kim Head, Population Statistics Division Nam 11 Kim Clef, Vital Statistics Division Jac Chul Clioe Vital Statistics Division 1loon Bang Kyo Cief, Sampling Section, Survey Management Division USAID Mi,,; iuoaI Americanl lnbass), Seoul, Korea Tel: 72-2601/18 Ext. 4227 William E. Paupo Mission Director florae Tel. 7904-4086) )'ore ri 1Iw.f1.t)p ,u n.;titi ute Tel: 965-9411 Jol1 Sloodal I'opulat iou Couicil Rep)rcesntative (home Tel. 59-4132) Center for Population and Family Planning, Yonsoi University Dong Woo Lee Professor Korean Institute for Family Planning I15, Noklbm-Dong Sudarmun-Ku, Seoul, Korea. Tel: 388-8002 Soa-lick Lee Deputy Director lhn 1uiun 01oc Chivf, Survey and Research Divison Kap Suk Koh Senior lIvaluation Officer Cho Bin Park Visiting Scholar from BIOS DLpt. Sc l of P.11. University of Ikwaii World Fertilit) Survey Ivid Smith Visitor to NDOM ANNEX II 2. Dong-A thiversity, PUSAN Jae Yotmg Park Professor and Director of Dong-A University Population Institute Trip Report 33 KOREA March 11-25, 1980 ANNEX III List of Documents Obtained 1. Draft Questionnaires for 1980 Population and Housing Census (Oct. 1980) (inKorean) Long Form: 15% of census enumeration districts (EDs) Short Form: 85% of census EDs 2. Materials pertaining to Korean CIM (inKorean). Questionnaires Supervisor and Enumerators Instruction Manuals 3. The 1976 National Fertility and Family Planning Evaluation Survey, B.T. Par, b - i an'--d-I].. Kwan, iKrean Instkzte for Family Planning, Feb. 1979. (In .nglish). 4. 1978 Fam1ilv P1anninj, and Fertility Survcy, J. Ii. Blyun and K.S. Koh, 6Frean Institute fori iunlly P,lan ungcc. 1979. (In Korean, Table headings in English). 5. Pamphlet describing KDI. (1978). 6. Instnction Booklet for contrilting the 1980 census !i,!. (in Korean). 

Trip report no. 33

http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAM918.pdf

Trip report no. 33

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