research
New Estimates of the Value of Federal Mineral Rights and Land
- Publication date
- Publisher
Abstract
We calculate a time series of the value of federal mineral rights in oil and natural gas by using various estimates of proven and unproven reserves and time series on federal government royalties and bonus payments. We also present estimates of the components of the revaluation of this series through time.The results are striking. Federal mineral rights are the single largest item in a complete balance sheet of the federal government, dominating the total value of tangible capital or financial assets. In 1981, for example, we estimate that the value of federal oil and gas rights exceeded 800billion,whichwaslargerthantheprivatelyheldnationaldebt.Thepaperalsopresentsestimatesofvariousconfidenceboundsonthevalueofoilandnaturalgas.Themethodologycanbeextendedtootherminerals,althoughwehavenotdoneso;ourestimateisalowerboundonthetotalvalueofallmineralrights.Thepaperalsoexpandsandextendspreviousestimatesofthevalueoffederalland.Newdata,andattentiontothedetaileddecompositionoffederallandholdingsbytype,leadtosubstantiallylargerestimatesofthevalueoffederallandthanhavebeenpresentedinpreviousresearch.Ourestimateisthatby1981,thetotalvalueoffederallandwas175 billion.