F. Thomas Juster

English

Research Papers in Economics

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic
Research
Volume Title: Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment
in Survey Design
Volume Author/Editor: F. Thomas Juster
Volume Publisher: UMI
Volume ISBN: 0-87014-413-8
Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/just66-2
Publication Date: 1966
Chapter Title: Appendix B:QSI Experimental Survey, Section III
Chapter Author: F. Thomas Juster
Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c1538
Chapter pages in book: (p. 55 - 60)Appendix B: Experimentcd Survey, SectionIII
(Form CP-21BX, June 23, 1964,
U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census)EDITING OF RESPONSES
Asidefrom the normal editing for errors by the Census Bureau, I decided
to edit two types of probability-scale responses. A few households (less
than twenty) reported that their probability of buying within twelve
months (or twenty-four) was less than their probability of buying within
six months (or twelve).This pattern of response is logically incon-
sistent, although it is easy to see why respondents would not have
realized the inconsistency. Clearly, if the chances of buying within six
months are five in ten, there must be at least five in ten within a more
extended period of time; the extended period evidently includes the
original period.1Inconsistent responses of this sort were recoded to
make the probability for the longer period the same as that for the
shorter.
A few households, reported that while their six-month probability
was zero, they "didn't know" about their twelve- or twenty-four-month
probabilities. Since these respondents had already said that their six-
month probability was zero, their (unknown) twelve- and twenty-four-
month probabilities must be higher or they would have reported zero for
these periods also instead of reporting "don't know."I arbitrarily
assigned these households probabilities of 0.5 for both the twelve- and
twenty-four-month periods.2
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this problem is that so little
editing was required. No more than a handful of respondents reported
that they did not know about their purchase prospects, and fewer than
a score gave responses that were logically inconsistent.In contrast,
about forty respondents reported "don't know" about their buying inten-
tions (meaning, I think, that they did not know how to interpret the
question), and all of these households reported a numerical value on
the probability scale.
Finally, a number .of cases had to be eliminated 'completely from
the original sample. These included households with whom an interview
was not, obtained on either the regular intentions survey, the experi-
mental probability survey, or the survey used to determine actual pur-
chases, and a few households that purchased one of the specified
durables within the few days' 'period between the survey of intentions
and the survey of probabilities.
1Households reporting that their six-month probability is 0.5 and their
twelve-month probability 0.2 are presumably saying that, although there is a
fair chance of their buying within six months, if they do not buy within that
time it is unlikely that they will buy at all.
2One or two households reported that they did not know about purchase
probabilities for any of the periods. These cases were assigned values of zero
for all periods, since it is impossible to tell anything at all about the appro-
priate levels. The difference between these cases and the, ones discussed
above is that it is known that the latter understood the question because they
reported a definite number for their six-month probabilities—zero. No informa-
mation at all, however, is available for the former cases.
56Section III — INTENTIONS
Part A — MOVING TO ANOTHER RESIDENCE
We would like to know what the prospects are that some member of your family will be moving to another
residence sometime during the next 6 months.
Hand respondent answer sheet.Under no circumstances should you suggest on answer to the respondent.
If respondent replies with a word description such as "good possibility," ask:Whatnumber is that?
The answers you may give are on this sheet, arranged on a scale like a thermometer.If you are certain or
practically certain that some member of your family will move to another residence during the next 6 months,
choose the answer "10."If you think there is no chance or almost no chance of moving, the best answer
would be "0." If you are uncertain about the prospects, choose another answer as close to "0" or'10" as
you think it should be.
1. Whatanswerwouldyou choose for the prospects that some member of your family will movewithinthe
next6 months; between now and next January?
MONTHS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NA
(ft 10, circle 10 in questions 2and3 below end go to part B)
2. What about the next 12 months, that is, between now and next July?
L12M0NTHS (0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1OJJNA
(If 10, circle 10 in question 3 below and go to part B)
•3. What answer would you choose for the next 2 years? -
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NA
Part B—PURCHASE OF AUTOMOBILES
Now I will ask a few questions about the prospects of your buying either new or used automobiles.
Please use the scale to select answers.
1. Taking everything into account, what are the prospects that some mimber of your family will buy either
a new or used car sometime within the next 6 months; between now and next Jonuary?
.16 MONTHS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
J
NA
. (If 10, circle 10 it, questions 2 and 3 below and go to question 4)
2. Whataboutthe next 12 months; that is, between now and next July?
1)2 MONTHS
J
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NA
(If 10, circle 10 in question 3 below and ask question 4)
3. What answerwould you choose for the next 2 years?
J24MONTHS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91OIINA.
(If 0, go to part C on page 4.Otherwise ask question 4 below)
If some member of your family does buy a car during the next 2 years, what are the chances that it will
be a brand-new car?
.
(NEW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101INA
LJSCOMM-DC 28872 P-64
57COL.
Section III — INTENTIONS — Continued
..
Part C — PURCHASE OF APPLIANCES
•
(49)
Under no circumstances should you suggest an answer to the respondent
1. As I read the list of appliances again, please choose an answer from the scale for each item covering
the next 12 months.I am only interested in possible purchase of brand-new appliances.If some member
of your family expects to buy a newly-built house containing some of these items, please count these as
DOSSible purchases. What aretheprospectsthatsomeone will buya brand-new — — during the next
12 months?
Kitchen
range
x V
I12
1MONTUS
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NA
I
Refrigerator
or freezer
x. V
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 .9 10 NA
(Sfl
Washing
machine
x V
12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NA
(52 Clothes
dryer
V
112
fMONTHSI
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NA
Room air
conditioner
x V
I12
IM0NTH5I
0 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9
101
(54)
Television
set
112
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Dishwasher
x V
12
MONTHS0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
J
FORM CP-2IBX (6.23-64)
58• Section III — INTENTIONS — Continued
PURCHASE OF APPLIANCES — Continued
Under no circumstances should you suggest on answer to the respondent
as I read the list again, please choose an answer from the scale for each item covering the next
years. What are the chances that someone willbuya brand-new— — during thenext two years?
V
Kitchen
YEARSJ0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10rNA
x V
Refrigerator I 2
I
freezer 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NA
x V
Washing 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 machine YEARS
x V
Clothes
•2 1
• YEARS0 1 2 3 4 ,5 6 7 8 9 101
NA
x V
air
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 •10 NA
x V
Television 2
0 NA YEARS0 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
x V
Dishwasher
YEARS10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 NA
59
25672 P-64Budget Bureau No. 41-6415.1; ApprovalExpires December 31, 1965
FORMCP-21BX (Aniwur skeet) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
- OF TNE CENSUS
ANSWER SHEET
- —CERTAIN,PRACTICALLY CERTAIN (99 in 100)
— 9 — ALMOSTSURE (9 in 10)
- 8 —VERYPROBABLE (8 in 10)
- 7 —PROBABLE(7inlO)
- 5 —GOODPOSSIBILITY (6 in 10)
- 5 — FAiRLYGOOD POSSIBILITY (5 in 10)
- 4 —FAIRPOSSIBILITY (4 ini0) -
— 3 —SOMEPOSSIBILITY (3 in 10)
— 2 '—SLIGHTPOSSIBILITY '(2 in 10)
1 —VERYSLIGHT POSSIBILITY (1 in 10)
— Q —NOCHANCE, ALMOST NO CHANCE (1 in 100)
USCOMM-DC P.64
60

Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design

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