Arthur E. Mittnacht

Paul M. Sommers

English

Research Papers in Economics

                                                                                                                                              
 
 
ARE CANADIAN NHL HALL OF FAMERS WINTER BABIES? 
 
 
by 
 
Paul M. Sommers 
And 
Arthur E. Mittnacht 
 
 
 
 
March  2010 
 
 
 
 
 
MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 10-18 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS 
MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE 
MIDDLEBURY, VERMONT 05753 
 
http://www.middlebury.edu/~econ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                             2 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ARE CANADIAN NHL HALL OF FAMERS WINTER BABIES? 
 
 
 
 
by 
 
 
 
 
Arthur E. Mittnacht 
Paul M. Sommers 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Department of Economics 
Middlebury College 
Middlebury, Vermont 05753 
psommers@middlebury.edu 
                                                                                                                                             3 
 
 
 
 
ARE CANADIAN NHL HALL OF FAMERS WINTER BABIES? 
 
 
 
 
 
  Outliers:The Story of Success, by Malcolm Gladwell, suggests that hockey players 
(particularly Canadians) with birthdays in earlier months have a greater chance of becoming elite 
players than those with birthdays in later months [1].  After all, if the eligibility cutoff for age-
class hockey is January 1
st, then a boy born in January has almost an entire extra year to grow 
than another boy born in December, yet they both must compete for the same roster spot.
1  
Gladwell [1, pp. 20-21], for example, notes the disproportionately large number of young men 
(almost half of the entire roster) born in January, February, and March on the 2007 Medicine Hat 
Tigers Canadian Junior A league hockey team. 
  The purpose of this brief note is to examine the birth dates of hockey’s elite, Canadian 
players elected to the National Hockey League (NHL) Hall of Fame through the year 2008.  The 
data on birth dates are from www.legendsofhockey.net/html/legendsplayer.htm . 
  The calendar year will be divided two different ways.  First, the calendar year will be 
divided into three-month periods (hereafter, the Gladwell division): January, February, March in 
the first period (hereafter, the first quarter); April, May, June in the second (hereafter, the second 
quarter); and so forth.  Alternatively, one might want to test the belief that the elite players in a 
winter sport were generally born in winter months (henceforth, the seasonal division).  The winter 
months are here assumed to be December, January, and February; the spring months are March, 
April, and May; the summer months are June, July, and August; and the fall months are 
September, October, and November.  Of the 240 players inducted into the NHL’s Hall of Fame 
through the year 2008, 219 were born in Canada (with birth dates reported for 213 of these 
inductees).  And, of the 213 Canadian players enshrined in the Hall of Fame, 29.1 percent were                                                                                                                                             4 
 
born in the first quarter, 22.1 percent were born in the second quarter, 22.5 percent were born in 
the third, and 26.3 percent were born in the fourth.  By comparison, 32.9 percent were born in the 
winter, 22.1 percent were born in the spring, 23.9 percent were born in the summer, and 21.1 
percent were born in the fall. 
  Table 1 shows the Gladwell breakdown of births for various subgroups of Canadian born 
inductees.  Table 2 shows a similar breakdown by season.  To determine whether there are 
statistically discernible variations, either by quarter or by season, a 
2 χ goodness-of-fit test was 
done of the null hypothesis that births are spread evenly over all four three-month periods 
(quarterly or by season). 
  In view of the 
2 χ values reported in the last column of Tables 1 and 2, the null 
hypothesis cannot be rejected (at better than the .05 significance level) using Gladwell’s quarterly 
division.
2  But, the null hypothesis can be rejected in several instances using the seasonal 
breakdown.  And, in particular, Canadian Hall of Famers, notably defensemen, born in Quebec or 
before 1944 were winter babies more often than not.                                                                                                                                             5 
 
 
 
Table 1.  Births by Quarter for Various Groups of 
          Canadian NHL Hall of Famers 
 
 
 
           Quarter 
                                                _________________________________________ 
    
 Group  First  Second  Third  Fourth 
2 χ   
 
 
  All  inductees  62 47 48 56 2.831 
 Position 
  F o r w a r d s
a  32 19 30 28 3.624 
  D e f e n s e m e n
b  20 14 10 11 4.418 
 
 Birthdate   
  Before  1944
c  52 38 36 47 3.948 
    After  1944  10 9 12 9 0.600 
 
 Province
d 
    Ontario  32 25 25 30 1.357 
  Quebec  20  8  9  15  7.231
*** 
 
 
 
   
*Significant at better than the .01 level. 
  
**Significant at better than the .05 level. 
 
***Significant at better than the .10 level. 
 
a Forwards include right wing, center, and left wing. 
b The difference between “All inductees” and the sum of “Forwards” and “Defensemen” include 
  goalies, rovers, and players identified as playing multiple positions. 
c No inductees were born in 1944. 
d Canadian Hall of Famers include natives of other provinces: Manitoba (18), Saskatchewan (17), 
  Alberta (8), British Columbia (4), and one each from New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and  
  Newfoundland. 
 
 
                                                                                                                                             6 
 
 
 
Table 2.  Births by Season for Various Groups of 
          Canadian NHL Hall of Famers 
 
 
 
    Season 
                                               _________________________________________ 
 
  Group  Winter  Spring  Summer  Fall 
2 χ  
 
 
  All  inductees  70 47 51 45 7.376
** 
 
 Position   
  F o r w a r d s
a  35 19 28 27 4.725 
  D e f e n s e m e n
b  22 16 13  4  12.273
* 
 
 Birthdate 
  Before  1944
c  61 37 40 35  10.006
** 
  After  1944  9  10  11  10  0.200 
 
 Province
d 
    Ontario  32 25 25 30 1.357 
  Quebec  20  8  9  15  7.231
*** 
 
 
  
   
*Significant at better than the .01 level. 
  
**Significant at better than the .05 level. 
 
***Significant at better than the .10 level. 
 
a See footnote a in Table 1. 
b See footnote b in Table 1. 
c See footnote c in Table 1. 
d See footnote d in Table 1.                                                                                                                                             7 
 
 
Reference 
 
 
1. M.  Gladwell,  Outliers: The Story of Success, Little, Brown and Co., 
  
  New York, NY, 2008. 
                                                                                                                                             8 
 
 
Footnotes 
 
 
 
1.  Two notable January babies now enshrined in the NHL Hall of Fame are Wayne Gretzky 
  
  (born on January 26, 1961) and Mark Messier (born on January 18, 1961). 
 
 
2.  We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no difference in the birth rate between months 
 
 ( 366 . 9
2 = χ , p = .588).  There are as many Canadian Hall of Famers born in January 
 
  as there are in December (25). 
  
   
 
  
   
         
 
 
 
 

Outliers: The Story of Success, Little, Brown and Co.,

Two notable January babies now enshrined in the NHL Hall of Fame are Wayne Gretzky (born on

We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no difference in the birth rate between months

Are Canadian NHL Hall of Famers Winter Babies?

http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/1018.pdf

Are Canadian NHL Hall of Famers Winter Babies?

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