Liberal Social Reconstruction and the Resolution of Civil Wars in Central America

Abstract

Are forceful security guarantees necessary to resolve civil wars?Drawing on realist insights, Barbara Walter argues that insecurity isthe critical barrier to civil war settlement and that securityguarantees are a necessary [but] not sufficient condition forsettlement. Civil war combatants are reluctant to relinquish weaponsbecause doing so renders them vulnerable to physical retaliation byenemies within the postsettlement state and makes it impossible for themto enforce concessions included in the agreement. International actorscan best overcome this obstacle, according to Walter, by offeringcredible and forceful guarantees of postwar security for the disarmingside. She found that combatants in civil wars occurring between 1940 and1990 almost always failed to reach successful negotiated solutions totheir conflicts unless an outside power guaranteed the safety of thebelligerents during the ensuing transition period. Of the eight casesof successful negotiated settlements in her study, only two involved nointernational security guarantees. The more profound the guarantees, asmanifested in the commitment of troops prepared to fight to preservepeace, the greater the probability that agreements will be honored. From1940 to 1990 such guarantees never failed to lead to successfulnegotiated settlements.