Quotas allocation rules in Romania assessed by a dynamic CGE model

Abstract

Alternative mechanisms for EU ETS (European Union Emissions Trading Scheme) quotas allocations within the Romanian economy are evaluated using a general equilibrium model within a dynamic intertemporal framework. Several distribution rules are simulated based on: the historical emissions, the least-cost approach and the auctioning scheme with and without a preliminary selection of eligible sectors. (1) The resulting marginal abatement cost in ETS eligible sectors is only 5.75 EUR/t CO2 for reducing pollution by 20.7%. Such a low level is explained by low energy prices and by substitution possibilities with low carbon content resources (nuclear and hydroelectricity). (2) Including all sectors in the trade creates a more flexible market than in the ETS, since more reduction options are available. (3) The ETS has high feasibility for monitoring. All eligible sectors (except refineries and metallurgy) present the lowest abatement cost in the economy. (4) Auctioning introduces a strong carbon price-signal, which reduces emission intensity but creates distortions in terms of trade and worsens the country's energy dependency. (5) Environmental policy has modest macroeconomic results and tends to correct the resources allocation. (6) The strong double dividend obtained under certain circumstances indicates Romania's potential for improving its energy efficiency and carbon intensity.climate policies, EU ETS, National Allocation Plan, quotas allocation, Romania, dynamic GCE modeling.