War on Terror: Do Military Measures Matter? Empirical Analysis of Post 9/11 Period in Pakistan

Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the causal relationship between military spending, terrorist attacks and intensity of terrorism in Pakistan, by applying ARDL approach to cointegration and Innovation Accounting approach for causality analysis. The results indicate that war on terror is the major determinant of military spending followed by terrorism intensity and the number of terrorist attacks respectively. The study further finds that terrorism intensity and terrorist attacks Granger-cause military spending but the reverse causality is found absent. The failure of military measures to curtail terrorism and its intensity induces one to suggest greater involvement of civil intelligence agencies by raising their budgets instead of pure military budget.Causality Analysis; Military Spending; Civil Intelligence; Terrorism