William McEachern

English

Research Papers in Economics

Income Still Tops, But
Poverty Increases
Recently released data for 1999 show
that Connecticut maintained its top spot
in per capita income, 37.3% above the
national average.  According to revised
figures, that’s the same lead the state
enjoyed in 1998.  Back in 1991, the dark-
est year of Connecticut’s Great Recession,
the state’s lead stood at only 33.7%.
Unfortunately, the rising tide of income
during the 1990s did not lift all boats.
While the state’s income picture bright-
ened, the poverty rate worsened. 
Using the Census Bureau’s three-year
averages at the state level, Connecticut’s
poverty rate rose from 8.1% in 1990-1992
to 9.9% in 1996-1998, the most recent
data available.  Over the same period, the
national rate dropped from 14.2% to
13.2%.  Thus, at the outset of the decade,
the state’s poverty rate was 6.1 percent-
age points below the national average
(and third lowest in the country), but
most recently it was only 3.3 percentage
points below the national average (and
eleventh lowest).  
Why has poverty worsened in
Connecticut in the midst of an economic
boom?  One possible answer has to do
with births to unwed mothers, especially
teenagers.  
Teenagers Having
Children
Social scientist James Q. Wilson notes
that children born to mothers who finish
high school, get married, and give birth
after reaching age 20 are ten times less
likely to be poor than children born to
mothers who fail to do these things.
Children pay the price of teenage mother-
hood.  U.S. data for 1998 indicate that
mothers under the age of 20 are less likely
than those 20 and over to seek health
care during the first trimester, and are
more likely to smoke during pregnancy.
Because of these health risks and the gen-
eral economic risks of poverty, babies
born to teenagers face a higher risk of low
birthweight, of premature birth, and of
dying in the first year of life. 
Children account for a disproportionate
share of America’s poor—the poverty rate
among children is double that of adults.
Children born to unmarried mothers are
more likely to be poor than are children
born to married mothers.  And four of
five teenage mothers are unmarried.
Thus, when predicting the poverty rate, a
leading indicator is the teenage birth rate.
Connecticut’s teen rate in 1998 was 36
births per 1000 female teenagers.  The
national average for this group was 51
births per 1000.  Hence Connecticut’s
teenage birth rate most recently was
about 30% below the national average. 
Connecticut’s 1998 teen birth rate was
also 11% below its own 1991 rate of 40
births per 1000.  But the national rate in
1998 was 18% below its 1991 rate of 62
births per 1000.  Thus, the rate has
declined less rapidly here since 1991 than
in the nation; in fact, only two states,
Arkansas and Rhode Island, experienced
less of a decline.  Connecticut’s slower
than average decline in teen
births may help explain why
the state lagged the nation in
alleviating poverty during the
decade.  
Declines in teen birth rates
here and nationally could be
traced to several develop-
ments.  Programs aimed at
reducing teen pregnancies plus
growing concern about sexual-
ly transmitted diseases result-
ed in more abstinence and in
greater use of contraceptives.
The proportion of teenagers
with sexual experience
stopped growing in the mid-
1990s, halting a two-decade-
long increase.  Finally, welfare
reforms and a sunnier job
market made teen motherhood
relatively less attractive.
Teen Birth
Demographics
There are substantial differences in
childbearing patterns across demographic
lines.  While these differences across
groups may relate more to income and
education than to race or place of origin,
federal reports do not provide birth rate
information based on income. 
Non-Hispanic white teenage females in
Connecticut experienced a rate of 17
births per 1000 in 1998, less than half the
national average of 35 for this group.
Only two states had lower birth rates than
Connecticut.  Since 1991, Connecticut’s
rate has declined 16% and the national
average has fallen 19%, with all states
showing a drop.  
Black teenage females in Connecticut
had a 1998 rate of 77 births per 1000—
9% below the national average for black
teens but more than four times the rate
among the state’s non-Hispanic white
teens.  Connecticut’s birth rate among
black teens ranked 36th highest national-
ly. Between 1991 and 1998, Connecticut’s
birth rate among black teens declined by
21%. The national average fell 26%; no
state showed an increase.  
Hispanic teens in Connecticut had a
1998 rate of 118 births per 1000—26%
above the national rate for this group,
nearly seven times the rate for the state’s
non-Hispanic white teens, and 52% above
the state’s black teen rate. Connecticut’s
birth rate among Hispanic teens ranked
seventh highest nationally. Since 1991, the
rate has declined 11% in the state; the
national average has declined 12%, but a
dozen states showed an increase.  The
accompanying chart summarizes state
and national teenage birth rates for each
group in 1991 and 1998.  
The net effect of Connecticut’s falling
birth rate on the total number of teen
births depends on relative population
shifts among female teens between 1991
and 1998. According to Census Bureau
estimates, Connecticut’s population of
non-Hispanic white teenage females
slipped 1% between 1991 and 1998; the
population of black teen females rose 8%;
and the population of Hispanic teen
females jumped 18%. Therefore, among
non-Hispanic white teens, a declining
population reinforced the falling birth rate
to cut the number of teen births. Among
blacks, a growing population of female
teens partly offset the falling birth rate;
consequently, the number of such births
still declined but not as fast as the birth
rate. And among Hispanic teens, rapid
growth in numbers more than offset the
falling birth rate, resulting in more
Hispanic teen births in 1998 than in 1991.   
18 The Connecticut Economy Summer 2000
WILL MCEACHERN’S STRAWS IN THE WIND
Birth Rates Among Teenagers Declined More
in U.S. than in Connecticut During the 1990s
CT Whites
US Whites
CT Blacks
US Blacks
CT Hispanics
US Hispanics
B
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Source: Developed by The Connecticut Economy using the national Vital 
Statistics Report, Vol. 48, No. 6, April 24, 2000. Whites are non-Hispanic
whites. Teenagers are females 15 to 19.
(-16%)
(-19%)
(-21%)
(-26%)
(-11%)
(-12%)Don't Forget to Visit Us On The Internet  -  http://www.lib.uconn.edu/ccea/quarterly.htm
Economy 
THE CONNECTICUT
A University of Connecticut Quarterly Review
Connecticut Travel
and Tourism Index
The overall index increased
4.1% in the second quarter
compared to the same quarter
the year before.  The index con-
sists of hotel-motel revenues,
hotel-motel occupancy rates,
attendance at six major tourist
attractions, and traffic on five
tourist roads.
Hotel/Motel Rev. H 14.1%
Occupancy Rate H 2.3%
Attendance H -1.0%
Traffic H 0.9%
Overall H 4.1%
Job Totals
(not seasonally adjusted)
New Housing
Permits
(not seasonally adjusted)
Help-Wanted Ads
(seasonally adjusted)
Average Real
Hourly Earnings
in Manufacturing
(not seasonally adjusted)
Indexed so 1990 = 100
INDEX OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS Mothers of All Ages
Finally, let’s turn to mothers of all ages.
About 31% of all Connecticut births in 1998
were to unmarried women, a figure slightly
below the national average of 33%.  The
national average has been rising for decades
and is nearly double its 1980 level of 18%
(historical trends at the state level are not
readily available). 
Connecticut’s 13,676 births to all unmar-
ried women in 1998 included 5,301 to non-
Hispanic whites, 3,753 to blacks, and 3,987
to Hispanics.  In 1998, births to unmarried
women in Connecticut accounted for 18% of
all births to non-Hispanic whites, 69% of
those to blacks, and 64% of those to Hispanics.
Nationally, comparable figures were 22% for
non-Hispanic whites, 69% for blacks, and
42% for Hispanics.  The share of births to
unmarried women ranked Connecticut 45th
highest nationally among non-Hispanic whites,
22nd among blacks, and first among Hispanics.  
Between 1991 and 1998, Connecticut’s
total non-Hispanic white population declined
4%, the black population increased 6%, and
the Hispanic population increased 21%.
Thus, the state’s population grew among
groups with a higher share of births to
unmarried mothers, and this likely con-
tributed to the state’s rising poverty rate.
No question, there have been numerous
success stories among families headed by
unmarried mothers.  Many have gotten jobs,
and an extended family can provide finan-
cial, moral, and child-care support.  But on
average the odds are still stacked against
children born to unmarried mothers, particu-
larly teenage mothers.  

Income Still Tops, But Poverty Increases

http://cteconomy.uconn.edu/articles/WM_Su2000.pdf

Income Still Tops, But Poverty Increases

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Research Papers in Economics