Quasi-conjugate Bayes estimates for GPD parameters and application to heavy tails modelling

Abstract

We present a quasi-conjugate Bayes approach for estimating Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters, distribution tails and extreme quantiles within the Peaks-Over-Threshold framework. Damsleth conjugate Bayes structure on Gamma distributions is transfered to GPD. Bayes credibility intervals are defined, they provide assessment of the quality of the extreme events estimates. Posterior estimates are computed by Gibbs samplers with Hastings-Metropolis steps. Even if non-informative priors are used in this work, the suggested approach could incorporate informative priors, it brings solutions to the problem of estimating extreme events when data are scarce but expert opinion is available. It is shown that the obtained quasi-conjugate Bayes estimators compare well with the GPD standard estimators on simulated and real data sets

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