Ilse Mintz

English

Research Papers in Economics

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau
of Economic Research
Volume Title: Cyclical Fluctuations in the Exports of the United States since
1879
Volume Author/Editor: Ilse Mintz
Volume Publisher: UMI
Volume ISBN: 0-870-14577-4
Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/mint67-1
Publication Date: 1967
Chapter Title: Appendix C The World Import Data
Chapter Author: Ilse Mintz
Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c1230
Chapter pages in book: (p. 312 - 317)Appendix C
The World Import Data
A quarterly series on world imports is available only since 1929.
For the years 1880—1928 we linked together annual series from sev-
eral sources and interpolated them with quarterly series constructed
for this purpose.
1.AnnualWorld Imports, 1880—1928
1880—1913: Compiled from data inthe following sources:(1)
Neumann-Spallart, Uebersich ten der Weltwirtsch.aft, Berlin,Jahrgang
1885—89,pp. 735—752. (2) Statistisches Jah.rbuch fuer dasDeutsche
Reich, Deutsches Statistisches Amt, Berlin, 1910, 1913. (3) U.S. De-
partment of Commerce and Labor, Bureau of Statistics, Statistical
A bstract of Foreign Countries, 1909.
The series represents imports of 50 to 108 countries. It resembles
closely a provisionalseries compiled by Folke Hilgerdt for the
United Nations shown to me confidentially in 1954. My series is on
the average about 7 per cent lower than the Hilgerdt series. It is,
on the other hand, about 4 per cent higher than a series published
by Fritz Soltau in "Statistische Untersuchungen uëber die Entwick-
lung und die Konjunkturschwankungen des Aussenhandels," Deutsches
Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung,Vierteljahrshefte zur Kon junk-
turf orschung, Berlin, Jahrgang 1,1926, Ergaenzungsheft 2. Soltau's
series is based on imports of 33 countries. It is reprinted in Ernst
Wagemann, Struktur und Rythmus der Weltwirtschaft, Berlin, 1931.
1920—23: Data from Statistisches Jahrbuch, 1935, pp. ll8x,119x.
Data given in this source for 1924 were used to splice the 1920—23
series to the 1924—28 League of Nations series.
1924—28: Data from League of Nations, Review of World Trade,
1937and 1938.Appendix C 313
2. Quarterly Interpolators for Annual World Imports,
1880—1928
1880—1923:Officialmonthly statistics of imports of the United
States, Great Britain, France, and, as far as available (1892—1913),
Germany were converted into quarterly dollar series. To the sum
of these was added that part of the exports of the three first-named
countries which went to countries other than those mentioned. The
inclusion of such exports in the import series is justified, since they
represent imports of countries not otherwise included. The percent-
age of total world imports which is covered by this interpolator is
remarkably stable from year to year, except for variations due to
changes in the number of serie,s included. It amounts to 54—57 per
cent for 1880—91 (five series), 66—71 per cent for 1892—1904 (six series),
71—74 per cent for 1905—13 (seven series), and 62—66 per cent for
1920—23 (six series). The above-mentioned export series were pre-
pared at the National Bureau by Rollin F. Bennet in 1941. French
exports by countries are available only from 1905 on.
To test the interpolator, we computed the corresponding series
for the period for which quarterly League of Nations data are avail-
able, i.e., 1929—38, and compared the two series. Since their move-
ments resembled each other closely we would have obtained good
estimates of the total had we used the interpolator for this period.
The residual (the part of the total not included in the interpolator)
also shows movements similar to those of the interpolator. In only
six out of thirty-eight quarters does the residual move in opposite
directionto the interpolator. This justifiesthe assumption that
underlies the method of interpolation employed, viz., that the move-
ments of the residual and the interpolator are highly correlated.
As a further test, we compared the deviations of the interpolator
and the residualseries from straight-line interpolations of their
respective annual totals. We found that these deviations lay in the
same direction for both series in thirty of the thirty-three quarters
covered. We considered these results sufficiently reassuring to fore-
go computation of the degree of correlation between the two sets
of deviations.
1924—28: The interpolator is the sum of the quarterly imports
of nineteen countries covering from 74 to 75 per cent of world
imports. Eighteen of the nineteen series are derived from monthly
data in national currencies, published in International Trade and314 Appendix C
Balancesof Payments, 'League of Nations, 1911—25 and later issues.
The series for Argentina is from El Comercio Exterior Argentine,
1920—30, Argentine Republic, Estadistica General;
National currencies were converted into dollars using exchange
rates from Banking and Monetary Statistics, Federal Reserve Board,
1943 and from International Statistical Yearbook, League of Na-
tions, 1928.
3. Quarterly World Imports, 1929—64
1929—38: We converted a quarterly index of world trade, published
by the League of Nations, Review of World Trade, into dollars
of 1930 parity with the help of the annual dollar value of world
trade in 1929 given in the same source. This source also provides
annual ratios of world imports to world trade, which we used to
derive the corresponding quarterly ratios.
1948-49: Quarterly world imports were derived from annual world
imports in United Nations, Statistical Yearbook, 1952, and from quar-
terly world exports in United Nations, Monthly Bulletins of Statis-
tics, 1950 and 1951.
1950—64: Quarterly world imports from United Nations, Monthly
Bulletins of Statistics. The United Nations data exclude imports of
Russia, Eastern. Europe, and mainland China which are included in
the series through 1938.
4. Exclusion of U.S. Imports and Seasomil
Adjustment, 1880—1964
Over the full period, quarterly special U.S. imports(i.e., imports
for home use) were deducted from world imports. For the period,
1933—38, U.S. import values were converted into dollars of 1930 parity,
otherwise they are in current dollars. The series was adjusted for
seasonal variation after deducting U.S. imports.Appendix C 315,
TABLE C-i
World Imports Excluding U.S. Imports,
Quarterly at Annual Rates, 1880-1965
(seasonally àdjus ted, million dollars)
YearandValueofYearandValueofYearandValueof
Quarter Imports Quarter Imports Quarter Imports
1880 I 6,394 1888 I 6,294 1896 I 7,561
II 6,606 II 6,443 II 7,428
III 6,519 III 6,410 III 7,493
IV 6,366 IV 6,595 IV 7,828
1881 I 6,294 18891 6,913 1897 I 7,821
II 6,491 II 6,843 II 7,758
III 6,488 III 6,983 III 7,906
IV 6,616 IV 7,139 IV 8,056
1882 I 6,732 1890 I 7,132 1898 I 8,200
II 6,643 II 7,170 II 8,426
III 6,874 III 7;296 III 8,441
IV 6,835 IV 7,184 IV 8,478
1883 I 6,918 1891 I 7,068 1899 I 8,553
II 6,976P II 7,400 II 8,783
III 6,832 III 7,372 III 9,053
IV 6,907 IV 7,593P IV 9,034
1884 I 6,923 1892 I 7,405 1900 I 9,515
II 6,588 II 7,016 II 9,455P
III 6,553 III 6,820 III 9,344
IV 6,402 IV 6,695 IV 9,572
1885 I 6,236 189.3 I 6,706T 1901 I 9,174
II 6,203 II 6,961 II 9,417
III 6,109 III 7,172 III 9,426
IV 5,941 IV 6,913 IV 9,279T
1886 I 5,873T 1894 I 7,303P 1902 I 9,300
II 5,991 H 6,988 II 9,499
III. 6,084 III 6,872 III 9,688
IV 6,106 IV 6,812 IV 9,662
1887 I 6,158 1895 I 6,650T 1903 I 10,124
II 6,057 II 7,142 II 10,046
III 6,186 III 7,349 III 10,314
IV 6,338 IV 7,368 IV 10,345P
(continued)316 Appendix C
TABLE C-i (continued)
YearandValueofYearandValueofYearandValueof
Quarter Imports Quarter Imports Quarter Imports
1904 I 10,404 1913 I 17,684 1927 I 28,956
II 10,260T II 18,108 II 29,644
III 10,360 III 18,220P III 29,968
IV 10,816 IV 18,036 IV 30,144
1905I 10,740 1914 I 17,584 1928 I 30,776
II 11,060 II 17,524 II 29,964
III 11,486 III 30,708
IV 11,948 IV 31,116
1906 I 12,027 1920 I 30,196 1929 I 31,300.
II 12,629 II 32,896P II 32,020P
III 12,444 III 32,784 III 31,808
IV 12,780 IV 26,880 IV 30,204
1907 I 13,410 1921 I 24,604 1930 I 28,992
II 13,622 II 20,068 II 27,020
III 13,688P III 20,000 III. 25,468
IV 13,264 IV 18,880T IV 23,084
1908 I 12,782 1922 I 20,208 1931 I 20,568
II 12,276T II 21,848 II 20,016
III 12,442 III 22,600 III 18,676
IV 12,464 IV 22,464 IV 15,924
1909 I 12,703 1923 I 21,364 1932 I 13,560
II 13,098 II 23,360 II 13,136
III 13,526 III 22,440 III 12,068
IV 13,929 IV .23,288 IV 11,952
1910 I 14,000 1924 I 23,768 1933 I 11,416
II 14,832 H 24,992 II 11,252
III 14,852 III 25,028 III 11,440
IV 15,252 IV 27,916 IV 11,240
1911 I 15,752 1925 I 29,840P 1934 I 11,160
II 15,704 II 28,236 II 11,052
III 15,576 III 28,964 III 11,008
IV 16,316 IV IV 10,876
1912 I 16,704 1926 I 28,472 1935 I 10,648T
II 16,596 II 26,572T II 10,900
III 17,840 III 27,964 III 11,036
IV 18,012 IV 28,200 IV 11,496
(continued)Appendix C 317
TABLE C-i (concluded)
YearandValueofYearandValueofYearandValueof
Quarter Imports Quarter Imports Quarter Imports
1936 I 11,332 1952 I 74,438P 1960 I 101,049
II 11,536 II 68,799 II 103,510
III 12,020 III 64,997 III 104,246
IV 12,016 IV 64,547 IV 105,258
1937 I 13,408 1953 I 63,162T 1961 I 107,586
II 15,188P II 64,326 H 107,994
III 15,216 III 65,345 III 108,796
IV 14,452 IV 66,248 IV 111,211
1938 I 13,944 1954 I 65,865 1962 I 114,975
II 13,248 II 67,449 II 112,902
III 12,972 III 69,574 III 115,621
IV 12,520T IV 71,215 1V 117,548
1939 I 13,040 1955 I 75,015 1963 I 116,345
II 74,511 II 124,071
III 77,013 III 129,060
IV 80,183 IV 131,152
1948 I 50,343 1956 I 80,275 1964 I 138,054
II 52,132 II .85,045 II 139,815
III 53,164 III 85,202 III 141,182
IV 56,735P IV 87,603 IV 144,952
1949 I 56,632 1957 I 93,470 1965 I 146,205
II 54,524 II 95,314P II 151,104
III 52,902 III 94,886 III 155,380
IV 47,896 IV 90,569 IV 156,566
1950 I 46,068T 1958 I 87,774
II 46,329 II 85,137
III 49,912 III 85,865
IV 56,407 IV 87,570
1951 I 62,974 1959 I 83,477T
II 68,751 II 89,618
III 73,007 III 91,913
IV 71,538 IV 96,951

Cyclical Fluctuations in the Exports of the United States since 1879

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