Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Arkansas

Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Arkansas. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part does not coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have not affected Arkansas, presenting this State as immune to the suffering of the nation, and to the occurrence of attacks. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Arkansas. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf. , and Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; decomposing violence: terrorist murder and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries