Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Oklahoma

Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder of Florida State (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Oklahoma, creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation, and the State: the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, 9/11 2001, and the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building bombing This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Oklahoma. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S., New York State, New York City, Arizona, Massachusetts, California, Washington, Ohio, Philadelphia City, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida, and Michigan. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.: A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries; and terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and attacks index for the City of Philadelphia during the last two centuries