Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Washington.

Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Washington. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder warns that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Washington creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Washington. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Ohio, and Arkansas. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; decomposing violence: terrorist murder and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries